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522 FXUS64 KLIX 231839AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA139 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... - Much-needed rain returns to the forecast ahead of a midweek cold front. - In the wake of the cold front, a return to near normal temperatures can be expected.&&.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025Wednesday and Thursday, a weak cold front will be approaching andmove through the area, enhancing rain chances for the region. Strong to severe showers and storms will be expected as this system moves through. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe weather by SPC. Gusty winds (40-60mph) and frequent lightning will be the main threats. We are outlooked in a MarginalRisk of Heavy Rainfall by WPC. With high PWs, some localized flash flooding could be possible in urban locations if any storms set up, but given the ongoing dry soil conditions, widespread flash flooding issues are not a concern. As far as the timing of the rainfall, generally expecting the system to be approaching thearea Wednesday evening and lingering through Thursday. MSW&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday night)Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025Friday through the weekend, once the frontal system moves throughthe area, conditions will be dry and cool overall. No rainfall isexpected this weekend. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler andmore comfortable as well with highs in the mid 80s and lows in themid 60s before warming up again at the beginning of the work week.Overall, expect a pleasant and cool weekend ahead weatherwise! MSW&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist atmost area airports. Conditions will drop to MVFR at some areaairports starting overnight tonight through tomorrow, like KHDC.Prob30 groups are in the forecast for KNEW, KBTR, and KMSY forshowers and storms tomorrow, which will drop conditions to MVFR.Conditions at MCB will drop to LIFR and IFR briefly for fogconditions around daybreak. Wind shifts greater than 30 degreeswill be expected at all area airports throughout the forecastperiod. MSW&&.MARINE...Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025Surface high pressure will remain centered just off to the east-northeast of the coastal waters through Wednesday. This willcontinue to result in benign conditions with generally lightsoutherly winds. An approaching cold front will result in higherrain chances beginning Thursday, with winds and seas becoming morechaotic in the vicinity of storms. As the front moves into the GulfFriday, high pressure will build in from the northwest resulting ina period of offshore winds through the weekend. Outside ofthunderstorms, no marine hazards expected.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 71 89 70 82 / 10 60 70 70 BTR 74 90 73 84 / 10 70 70 70 ASD 72 90 72 84 / 0 50 50 80 MSY 76 92 75 87 / 0 40 40 80 GPT 74 89 74 86 / 0 40 40 80 PQL 71 90 73 87 / 0 20 30 80 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...MSWLONG TERM....MSWAVIATION...MSWMARINE...MSW
