CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 25, 9:41 PM EDT268
FXUS61 KCLE 260141
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
941 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will slowly
departs to the east through Friday. Ridging will begin to build over
the Great Plains as high pressure moves into the region late Friday.
A weak cold front will move through the region on Sunday as high
pressure builds in behind early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
9:41 PM EDT Update...
Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. Only change made late this evening was to expand
15%-20% POP's slightly over/near western and central Lake Erie
and in/near Mid OH to account for recent trends in radar data
and NWP model guidance. Very isolated rain showers should
impact northern OH and NW PA through about daybreak Friday, as
multiple and subtle surface trough axes, tied to disturbances
aloft, sweep generally E'ward through our CWA. Despite boundary
layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling through daybreak and
shortly thereafter, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the
surface trough axes should release weak boundary layer CAPE
amidst non-excessive boundary layer CIN (e.g. surface-based
CIN) to generate very isolated showers. Please see discussion
below for further details.
Previous Discussion from 3:02 PM EDT...
An upper level trough is currently situated over the lower Great
Lakes and extends down into the lower Mississippi Valley. This
feature will progress slowly to the east through Friday dragging a
surface cold front along with it. PoP chances have been decreasing
throughout the day today, though there are a few isolated showers in
eastern Ohio and should expect those to move east this evening.
There will be northwest flow behind the cold front tonight into
Friday morning and with a little lake induced instability, there
will be potential for scattered lake effect showers across the Snow
Belt through midday Friday. High pressure will be building in
throughout the day and drier weather will be expected through the
remainder of the near term. Additionally, with the precipitation
that fell across the region the past couple of days and clearing
this evening, there will be potential for fog for to form across the
region. Most of it will be patchy and confined to lower valleys, but
areas of fog will be possible from I-71 eastward. Temperatures will
warm slightly for Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s and
overnight lows down into the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move into the region this weekend and quiet
weather is expected through the weekend. An upper level low will be
spinning across the mid-south that will bring in some cloud cover
across parts of the region, but no precipitation is expected with
this. A cold front will be slowly moving through the Great Lakes
region as its parent low pressure system moves into the Hudson Bay
This will stale out to our north and become fairly stationary by
Sunday and we will stay dry due to the lack of moisture in the
region. Temperatures for this weekend will have a slight warming
trend with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in
the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected through the long term as high pressure
will stationed over the region for the majority of the long term.
Temperatures to start the week will be in the upper 70s and low 80s.
A cold front to the north may drift south during the middle of the
week and bring in some cooler temperatures but no precipitation.
Temperatures in the later part of the week will be cooler in the low
70s for highs and overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s and
low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Multiple surface trough axes tied to disturbances aloft will
sweep generally E'ward through our region through 12Z/Fri.
Thereafter, a surface ridge builds in earnest from the Ozarks
and vicinity through 00Z/Sat. A weak MSLP gradient is expected
to promote calm or light and variable surface winds in northern
OH and NW PA through the TAF period.
Isolated rain showers are expected along and ahead of the
surface trough axes through 12Z/Fri, while very isolated
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the trough axes
through ~04Z/Fri. Brief MVFR to IFR and brief/erratic surface
wind gusts up to 20 to 30 knots are forecast with showers and
especially storms this evening. Given the isolated coverage of
the showers and storms, there is low confidence that convection
will impact any of the TAF sites.
Outside of convection, widespread VFR are expected for the time
being. However, clearing sky generally from west to east, weak
or calm surface winds, and sufficient low-level moisture will
allow widespread fog of varying density to form overnight
tonight, especially after 04Z/Fri and inland from Lake Erie.
Ceilings and visibility as low as LIFR are expected with the
fog. Later Friday morning, the onset of daytime warming and
associated convective mixing of the boundary layer will allow fog
to dissipate and give way to widespread VFR between 12Z/Fri and
15Z/Fri. Note: few to scattered cumuli with bases near 5kft AGL
are expected late Friday morning through early evening.
Outlook...Fair weather and VFR expected through Monday. Isolated
rain showers with non-VFR possible in the southeastern-third of
our region this Monday night through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A low pressure system and associated surface front will continue
to depart the region and allow for northwest flow to persist on
the lake. Another trough moving through the Great Lakes will
allow for slightly elevated west to northwest flow to continue
on Friday. For Saturday, the lake will be between the trough to
north and a low pressure system moving up the East Coast and
southwest flow will overtake the lake. After that, high
pressure will enter from the west for the second half of the
weekend into next week and light flow will be expected on the
lake with some variable direction depending on lake/land
breezes. No marine hazards are expected at this time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 25, 9:41 PM EDT---------------
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