JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 2:09 AM EDT704
FXUS63 KJKL 260609
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
209 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A daily risk for isolated showers will then continue through
the weekend, mainly near the Virginia and Tennessee border.
- The remnants of a tropical system may impact the area for the
early part of next week bringing the potential for heavy
rainfall.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as the shower chances continue to diminish. There will also be a
time of fog with locally dense patches around through the rest of
the night and early morning, but increasing clouds from the south
will likely limit the extent and duration of the fog. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
00Z sfc analysis shows low pressure to the northeast of Kentucky
with its cold front dragging through far eastern parts of the
state. A few showers and even a potential thunderstorm or two are
found along and behind this boundary. Drying conditions follow the
front later tonight for most of the area though low clouds and
areas of fog are also expected. Currently, temperatures are
running in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid northwest
winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints vary from the lower 60s northwest
to the lower 70s in the southeast. Have updated the forecast
mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
but also to fine tune the PoPs and thunder chances through the
rest of the night. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
Surface analysis across the CONUS is slowly becoming quieter. The
synoptic features, mentioned in previous discussions still remain,
merely translated a few hundred miles to the east. Locally, a cold
front, extending southwest from a surface low over western New York,
has passed through the area and is currently impacting West Virginia
and Virginia. However, some lingering showers are still developing
across the area as the upper-level trough will provide sufficient
dynamic forcing for precipitation development through the afternoon.
As mentioned above, the remainder of the day will be characterized
by cold FROPA and forcing from a persistent upper-level trough. This
trough has been affecting the eastern CONUS for the last several
days. Through the day today and into Friday, the trough will pivot
overhead but still maintain its positive tilt over the region. As
upper-level forcing remains present, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon before gradually
tapering off toward the early overnight. With widespread cloud cover
expected this afternoon, high temperatures will only reach the mid-
70s, but where there are breaks in the clouds, a few locations may
reach the upper 70s. Cloud cover is expected to remain overhead
through the overnight, leading to a mostly mild night with lows only
falling into the mid-50s to lower 60s with areas of patchy dense fog.
Friday through the rest of the period will bring similar
temperatures, as highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s.
However, the highlight from Friday through Saturday will be the
cutting off of the trough to form a closed cut-off circulation.
Morning and early afternoon model suites consistently show the H5
trough being cut off from the mean flow, with the resultant closed
circulation centered over the Central Appalachians. As this occurs,
the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be focused
over the southeastern portions of Kentucky. Forecast streamlines of
1000 hPa to 500 hPa RH show the best moisture fetch across those
areas as southerly flow is drawing up Gulf moisture. Conversely,
northerly flow around the closed circulation will advect drier air
into the northwestern portions of the CWA, limiting the potential
for afternoon convection in those areas. Any shower or thunderstorm
that does develop will quickly taper off toward sunset. Similar to
Thursday night, areas of patchy dense fog could develop again for
Friday night into Saturday, with overnight lows falling into the mid
to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
For Saturday, a positive upper trough axis will continue to move
slowly into the central and southern Appalachians with the frontal
boundary moving well southeast of the area. However, an inverted
surface trough will remain across the far eastern sections of
east Kentucky.
Shear axis and associated Q-Vector forcing will help keep chances of
showers especially areas near the KY/VA and KY/TN state-lines.
Ensemble and latest deterministic models show CAPE values of 500
near the KY/VA and KY/TN stateline. These areas will have the
greatest chance of scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in
the afternoon/early evening.
For Sunday, ensemble cluster analysis shows upper trough axis moving
east of the area with northerly flow aloft drying the area-mass over
the region. More sunshine and mostly dry conditions. Only the far
eastern counties have a slight chance of showers.
For early next week (especially Monday and Tuesday), upper trough
over the eastern United States becomes a cut-off low over the
southeast United States. The evolution of this upper trough/low will
play a major role in how the tropical systems affect the central and
southern Appalachians. Confidence is low of tropical track and
impacts over east Kentucky.
For Wednesday into Thursday of next week, a lot of uncertainties and
confidence low in regard to the phasing of the tropical system and
remains of weakening upper low over the southeast United States and
Appalachians. The ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic models
differ a good deal. There is a potential of a good deal of sub-
tropical moisture remaining over the area keeping shower activity
and cloudy sky. Again, instability remains quite limited at best
thus thunder chances are low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Widely varying conditions were noted at TAF issuance. As upper
level clouds slowly pull away, expect low clouds and fog to become
the prevailing condition at most if not all locations, bringing a
period of MVFR/IFR or worse persisting through sunrise. Improvement
to VFR can be expected by the late morning/early afternoon hours
on Friday. Light winds from the north will be the rule during the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 2:09 AM EDT---------------
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