CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 8:02 PM EDT916
FXUS61 KCLE 250002
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
802 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure system will move northeastward through
tonight into eastern Canada. The upper level trough is currently
over the Great Lakes region and will be slowly moving eastward
through Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend with a
weak cold front moving through Sunday. Early next week, high
pressure will build in north of the Great Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
8:02 PM EDT Update...
Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. However, now expect nocturnal cooling amidst
cloud breaks, abundant low-level moisture, and weak or calm
surface winds to promote widespread fog formation, especially
between midnight tonight and shortly after daybreak Thursday
morning. Fog is then expected to dissipate by mid or late
morning on Thursday as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary
layer occurs. The sensible weather forecast was updated
accordingly. Please see discussion below for further details.
Previous Discussion from 3:14 PM EDT...
Upper level troughing is currently centered over the Great Lakes
region and eastern Ontario and extend down into the mid Mississippi
Valley and central Great Plains. This feature will be slowly moving
eastward through Thursday night and into Friday as ridging starts to
build into central CONUS.
Currently, there is a broad area of precipitation across eastern
Ohio into Pennsylvania that has been slowly progressing eastward.
Generally there has been light rain with totals around 0.25", though
within some of the more persistent and heavier areas of rain, totals
have been around 0.50-0.75". Expectation is that this trend will
continue, though the majority of the rainfall has already occured. A
line of showers is starting to form along, and just east of the I-75
corridor and will be progressing eastward through the evening. This
has shown higher returns than the showers to the east, so expect
heavier rainfall and isolated convection, but within a short
timeframe. Will need to keep an eye out for potential localized
flooding, though the risk is low at this time.
As the surface low pressure moves off to the northeast, PoPs will
decrease from west to east tonight through Thursday morning. Another
shortwave will be moving along the broader, upper level trough
during the day Thursday, but with the trough moved to the east
slightly, PoPs will be highest east of the I-71 corridor. Those PoPs
will decrease Thursday afternoon into the evening as the upper level
features progress to the east, with some lingering lake enhanced
showers possible late Thursday night.
Temperatures tonight will stay mild in the low 60s with Thursday
seeing similar highs to today in the low to mid 70s and overnight
lows dropping into the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build in briefly during the short term with quiet
weather expected. There will be an upper level low stationed over
east-central CONUS, that will keep some cloud cover over the eastern
portion of the region, but should stay dry as all of the
precipitation stays to the southeast. High temperatures for Friday
and Saturday will be in the 70s with overnight lows down into the
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday, upper level troughing will move across the northern Great
Lakes and extend a surface cold front down through the region.
Though, precipitation is not expected with the front as it passes
through. High pressure will build in behind to start the week and no
precipitation is expected for the remainder of the long term.
Temperatures will follow a similar trend to the short term and highs
will be in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Aloft, a trough axis drifts from near Lake Michigan and the
Lower MO Valley to near central Lake Erie and the Mid OH Valley
by 00Z/Fri. Cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow ahead of the trough
axis becomes NW'erly behind the trough axis. At the surface, the
trough axis extended SW'ward across central Lake Erie and
NW OH at 23:40Z/Wed. This trough axis will drift E'ward and
should exit the rest of our region between 15Z/Thurs and
18Z/Thurs. Our regional surface winds trend variable in
direction and around 5 knots in magnitude through ~15Z/Thurs.
Thereafter, primarily WNW'erly to NW'erly surface winds around
5 to 10 knots are expected through 00Z/Fri.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected along and ahead of the surface trough axis,
especially through 04Z/Thurs and after 14Z/Thurs. Brief MVFR to
IFR are possible with showers and storms. Widespread low clouds
with ceilings varying between 5kft and 1kft AGL are expected
through 04Z/Thurs. Thereafter, widespread ceilings are expected
to vary between about 1kft AGL and the LIFR range before rising
to the MVFR range after ~14Z/Thurs. These low ceilings should
then give way to scattered to broken cumuli with bases near
4kft AGL by ~16Z/Thurs. Cumuli are expected to dissipate with
nocturnal cooling between 21Z/Thurs and 00Z/Fri.
Nocturnal cooling amidst abundant low-level moisture and weak
surface winds is expected to promote the development of
widespread fog with variable density in northern OH and NW PA,
especially after 04Z/Thurs. Visibility will vary between MVFR
and LIFR in fog. The fog is expected to dissipate with diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer between ~12Z/Thurs and
~15Z/Thurs.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated rain showers and patchy
fog Thursday night through about daybreak Friday, especially in
the eastern two-thirds of our region. Scattered rain showers
with non-VFR possible this Monday afternoon through evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Light and variable winds this evening and tonight become onshore 10-
15kts Thursday as low pressure moves northeast of Lake Erie. Waves
less than a foot will become 1-3ft Thursday, and then 1-2ft Friday
in onshore winds weakening to 5-10kts. Back to light and variable
Saturday and Sunday with waves less than 2ft with weak high pressure
in the region.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 8:02 PM EDT---------------
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