Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1132 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE692
AWUS01 KWNH 242025
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250130-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Areas affected...lower to mid-MS Valley into northwestern TN and
KY
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 242023Z - 250130Z
Summary...At least an isolated flash flood threat will evolve
through this evening from the lower/middle MS Valley into
northwestern TN and KY. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected through 01Z.
Discussion...Radar trends over the past hour have shown an
increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms from
northeastern AR into southeastern MO and western KY. These storms
were forming along a quasi-stationary front and just ahead of a
positively tilted mid to upper-level trough axis located over
IL/MO into northeastern OK as observed on water vapor imagery.
Filtered sunshine and anomalous PWAT values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches
have contributed to MLCAPE of 500 to 1000+ J/kg via 20Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.
850 mb winds of 20 to 30 kt were observed across the lower MS
Valley into northern MS/southwestern TN via VAD wind data, just
ahead of the base of the mid-level trough. As the trough axis
advances eastward through the evening, the region of locally
stronger low level winds are forecast by the RAP to expand
northeastward into TN/KY, aiding with axes of low level
convergence (in addition to the surface front and resultant
outflows). This will occur beneath a divergent pattern aloft
within the right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt jet at 250 mb
expanding northeastward from MO/IL. The result should be an
increase in thunderstorm coverage, especially over the
lower/middle MS Valley with areas of training from SW to NE.
Within axes of training, hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be
likely with potential areas of flash flooding from 2 to 4 inches
of storm total rainfall through 01Z to 02Z. Given somewhat meager
instability and low level winds into KY/TN, the response is not
expected to be well organized or widespread with any instances of
flash flooding most likely remaining isolated to widely scattered.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38178393 37948310 37498279 37148314 36848430
36318687 35898854 35299000 35149152 35749202
36899120 37788852 38108581
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1132 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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