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079 FXUS64 KLIX 190446AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1146 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1115 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - Calm/quiet weather expected today thru the upcoming weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. No excessive heat concerns in the forecast. - Can't rule out an isolated shower or storm for northern/northeastern areas this afternoon, but coverage will be limited. - Rain/storm chances have lowered somewhat going into the early to middle parts of next week - more routine with scattered daily mainly afternoon/evening shower/storm chances. &&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)Issued at 1115 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025Quiet and calm early this morning with only some scatteredmid/upper-level clouds around. Main focus for today was on whatwas presented by the recent suite of 00Z CAM guidance, attemptingat introducing a few isolated showers or storms mainly fornorthern areas, north of I-10/12 and east of I-55. Taking a closerlook a proximity soundings from the HRRR (00Z for KMCB)illustrates that we will mix out strongly, as we have for weeksnow increasing LCL heights above a dry adiabatic, deep mixedlayer. Subsidence at H6 will keep mid-level temps relatively"warmer" into the -7 to -8C range, however just enough availableenergy between the LCL and inversion base will support scatteredCu to develop as we warm up. Additionally, the H5 pattern suggestsa generalized weakness aloft where just enough lift andaforementioned shallow energy could spark a few showers/storms here and there. Greater confidence will come from any extra boost likely a northward drifting lake/seabreeze boundary) being an extra aid/foci in ascent to get a few going. Thus, increased inherited 01Z NBM PPI01 grids from 0-5% to 15-17% to get a mention in the forecast. Additionally, as for dewpoints, did lowerguidance utilizing the NBM 25th to 10th percentile this afternoonto account for the well-mixed PBL we can expect later today. Observations from yesterday illustrate a few areas hit the upper 50's, well on the low end of guidance and will keep that lower-endbias going.Otherwise, the weekend is looking nice and drier! Highs remain inthe low to mid 90's. Nothing record-breaking as records are wellinto the upper 90's to near/at 100 for some locations, but is above average by several degrees. KLG&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday night)Issued at 1115 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025Now going into next week, there are a few interesting changes intrends with long-range guidance. Namely, just by quickly glancingat deterministic guidance shows the cut-off upper-low over themid-west being much less amplified/stronger and overall weaker,allowing a stronger ridging pattern to build over the southern US. This upper-low was previously the driving force to send a weakness/weak trough into the northern Gulf coast states introducing widespread shower/storm chances. This took someinvestigating, and dove deeper into cluster analysis to better get an idea at what is going on which revealed the northern US/southern Canadian ridge being stronger, and the cut-off low originating as a shortwave trough over the PacNW being stuck under the ridge in a subtle omega pattern. This makes sense, and loses any momentum during it's slow eastward drift becoming weaker/stretching out with time, and in-turn reduces southern US troughing to allow a 588dm ridge to build in more. Cause/effect is the NBM lowering PoPs from the 50/60's Tuesday/Wednesday to more 20/30's. Having a very hard time thinking - even with this trend - that PoPs will get much lower than this, as regardless at a minimum, we should settle into a more routine summertime afternoon/evening scattered shower/storm regime, but given this long-range shift/trend, will advertise showers/storms will be around and will monitor how this continues to trend over the next few days. Overall, someone will see rain/storms next week which with the latest drought monitor illustrating widespread D0 and pockets of D1, could be seen as useful especially as we close in on the seasonably driest period of the year according to climatology. Temperatures remain hot, but not seeing excessive heat concerns thru the next 5-7 days. KLG&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1115 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecastperiod. SKC and light/calm winds early this morning, then we'll see winds increase to around 6-8kts from 16-18Z thru sunset. Will see a lake/seabreeze for coastal terminal sites, causing a brief wind shift but otherwise will some SCT low- level Cu in the afternoon. Can't rule out a brief ISO SHRA/TSRA for KMCB to northof KGPT/KASD this afternoon but impacts will be limited. KLG&&.MARINE...Issued at 1115 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025Quiet/calm conditions for marine waters can be expected thru this upcoming weekend thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure to our north, promoting mainly light easterly winds and calm waves/seas. with light winds and calm waves/seas. Can't rule out a few isolated showers each day, but chances go up slightly more as we go into Monday thru mid-week but will primarily be scattered chances for now. KLG&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 66 92 68 92 / 0 20 10 0 BTR 68 93 69 94 / 0 10 0 0 ASD 66 92 68 92 / 0 20 10 0 MSY 73 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 70 91 71 92 / 0 10 10 0 PQL 66 93 68 94 / 0 20 10 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
