BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 6:50 PM EDT265
FXUS61 KBOX 182250
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
650 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry conditions Friday but temperatures
will trend cooler for the weekend behind a cold front with more
autumn like temperatures. The dry weather pattern continues
into next week with a notable warming trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Quiet weather tonight. Chance for patchy fog early Friday.
Low clouds will likely clear the Cape/Islands by this evening. High
pressure will be in place with light winds tonight. Warmer air will
remain aloft tonight keeping lows in the 50s to low 60s. Clear skies
and residual moisture will support potential for patchy fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Warm again Friday with dry, breezy conditions.
Friday:
A cold front drops southward across southern New England on Friday.
The front brings in a drier airmass along with a shift to NW
winds. Forecast soundings are supportive of sufficient mixing
for a marginally breezy day with an occasional gust up to 20
mph. Relative humidity values drop to 40 percent range later in
the afternoon. Though relatively dry/breezy, this is below Red
Flag criteria. The cooler airmass will lag behind the cold
frontal passage keeping high temperatures normal-slightly above
normal on Friday. Highs will likely range in the 70s with values
approaching 80F in the CT River Valley.
Friday Night:
A cooler airmass will sink southward Friday night and with clear
skies, will provide an ideal radiational cooling night. This
will drop temperatures into the 40s for the interior with a few
upper 30s possible for the higher elevation spots. Winds in the
coastal areas may remain elevated limiting the degree of
cooling relative to the more inland spots. Temperatures should
range closer to the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:
* Dry pattern continues - few showers Wed/Thu?
Overall pattern is not expected to change much through next week. As
a result we expect a continuation of mainly dry and seasonable
weather, although we'll see a bit of a cooldown this weekend
followed by another warmup early next week, as Canadian high
pressure builds into New England and eventually moves offshore.
The only chances of seeing any rainfall (and light at that) is
sometime in the Wednesday - Thursday timeframe as weak trough and
surface low approach from Great Lakes. However, there is a fairly
wide range of solutions from looking at ensembles, and it's possible
we end up remaining dry (especially if EC-led camp of closing off
upper low over southern Plains comes to fruition). In any event, any
rainfall would be less than 0.25 inch and would not provide any
relief from the ongoing dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAF update: High confidence.
Lingering MVFR/IFR cigs near Cape Cod and Islands will move
offshore leaving VFR conditions through Fri night.
W/NW winds with gusts to 20kt Fri diminish and become N/NE by
Fri evening.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday through Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday Night...High Confidence.
Seas 3 feet or less Thursday night, increasing to 4 feet for the
northern outer waters Friday night. Winds less than 25 kts
Friday. Winds increase Friday evening approaching 25 kts for the
northern outer waters after 00-06z. Winds in other marine zones
range 15-25 kts.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Mensch/JWD
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...Mensch/JWD
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 6:50 PM EDT----------------
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