BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 3:41 AM EDT296
FXUS61 KBOX 180741
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
341 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will lift
northward across the region tonight into early Thursday as low
pressure tracks to the south. Drying out Thursday afternoon
with warm and dry conditions Friday, then a cold front will be
followed by more autumn-like temperatures this weekend. Dry
weather pattern continues into next week with a notable warming
trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:
* Showers this morning taper off in the afternoon, giving way to a
drier day
Early morning showers and storms come to an end by the late
morning hours over the east coast. The subtropical low passing
to the south moves east out to sea this morning, leading to
skies clearing from west to east throughout the day. Winds will
then shift west for the afternoon. With clearing over the
interior first and good mixing with temperatures at 925 mb
around 20C, temperatures may reach the low 80s there. The Cape
and Islands will be slightly cooler as clouds linger a bit
longer there with highs in the mid 70s. Generally, a warm day
ahead across southern New England, with slightly muggy
conditions as dew points reach the 60s in RI and eastern MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Warm and dry conditions continue into Friday
Skies continue to clear heading into tonight. As west to northwest
winds go light once again and dew points remain slightly elevated
over much of SE MA, some patchy fog becomes a possibility tonight.
Mild temperatures continue with warmer air aloft keeping
temperatures in the 50s and low 60s.
A cold front moves in from the north Friday, shifting winds more
north. Drier air moves in behind it with high pressure beginning to
build behind it as well. The colder air from the north is expected
to lag behind the front itself and won't move in until tomorrow
night, allowing daytime highs to still reach the upper 70s in most
spots, with areas in the CT River Valley approaching 80F once
again.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Drier and cooler Friday night through the weekend before warming
trend early next week
The general trends in the long term forecast remain relatively
unchanged. With the cold front having moved through the region
by Friday evening, the colder air behind it finally moves in for
Friday night. Lows will dip into the low 40s with some spots in
NW MA possibly falling into the upper 30s.
More autumn-like weather prevails through the weekend as the cooler
airmass settles in from the north. High pressure builds in
post-fropa, decreasing winds as dew points fall into the 30s for
much of southern New England north of I-90. Even with drier
conditions, the lack of strong winds should help keep fire
weather concerns at bay. Highs Saturday only get into the upper
60s, even struggling to reach 70F in the CT Valley as 925 mb
temperatures remain around 10C during the day after dipping
below 10C overnight. Ensembles indicate Saturday night will be
even more favorable for cooler temperatures with lows dipping
into the upper 30s for some spots due to expected strong
radiational cooling.
Temperatures begin to rise slightly Sunday as high pressure starts
to move east and ridging aloft builds. Southerly to southwesterly
flow kicks in late Sunday/early Monday into Tuesday as a result,
increasing temps and moisture to start the week; ensembles are
already indicating probabilities around 50 to 70 percent for
temperatures of 80+ by Tuesday afternoon and 925 mb temperatures
then return to around 20C. Some ensemble guidance is hinting at the
chance for some showers for Wednesday as a shortwave moves towards
southern New England, but details on timing and location remain
uncertain at this time as it is still far out in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF update:
Through 12z...High Confidence.
MVFR with IFR (and some pockets of LIFR) possible in SHRA/TSRA.
Scattered showers are ongoing over much of SE MA, Cape Cod, and
around the Islands, plus some moving over BOS. This trend is
expected to continue for the next few hours. Converted PROB30s
to TEMPOs with these showers moving north.
Thursday...High confidence in trends.
MVFR/IFR ceilings and -SHRA early will steadily improve to VFR
between 15-17Z, except over Cape Cod and the Islands where
improvement may be slower. Light northeast gradually shifting
to west/northwest tomorrow afternoon.
Thursday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. Light west/southwest winds for the first half of the night
become northeast by 12Z Friday.
Friday...High Confidence.
VFR. Breezy NW winds around 10 kts, occasionally gusting to 15
kts.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. SHRA ongoing and may
last through 10z. Chance for IFR remains, though confidence
in LIFR has lowered. Removed from TAF at this time.
BDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday through Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday...High Confidence.
The chance for some thunderstorms remains through this morning
over the waters near the Cape and Islands. Otherwise, expect
relatively quiet conditions for mid-September with sustained
winds 10 knots or less and gusts less than 20 knots. Seas
gradually becoming 3 feet or less by Thursday afternoon.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Hrencecin/RM
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Hrencecin
MARINE...Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 3:41 AM EDT----------------
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