PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 1:01 AM CDT292
FXUS63 KPAH 220601
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
101 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms will provide
appreciable soaking rains broadly across the region this week.
2-3" average areal amounts are cumulatively expected, with
locally higher amounts potential.
- A pleasant retreat from still muggy highs in the lower 80s
will transition into the 70s as the week wears on, and
humidity levels will soon follow with a similar downward
trend toward the end of the week into next weekend, when dry
weather returns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A nice dip in the H5 pattern is picked up by the models and is
responsible for ongoing convection, as it is shooting its
positive vorticity advection across the FA thru the morning
hours. Instability fields wane eastward, and modeled lapse rates
are paltry, so anticipate more of the same with a general
weakening trend as the wave lifts on thru. Most should get a
nice soaking out of this round, the near beginning of multiple
rounds expected this week. It is going to leave a cloudy first
half to two thirds of the day, but some eventual afternoon break
may provide just enough late day heating that could pop
instability up enough to trail its axes into our eastern
counties with redevelopment as the wave moves east/out of the
FA. These storms would be the ones for stronger potential if one
can occur. The wave has about 30-35 kts of bulk shear riding
with it, so it's nothing to scoff at, esp during peak heating.
After that, the models suggest another similar, albeit more
subtle kink shoots a wave of pva across our southern/eastern
counties tonight. It'd bring another spike in pops and is
reflected by the NBM w/likely-categorical mention...providing
another good soaking rain.
After its passage, another pause before more channelled
vorticity advects into the FA late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Again, the NBM seems to pick up on this nicely, driving pops
toward/into categorical mention again. Another good soaking rain
will be accompanied with a little better instability and shear,
so the marginal risk zone across our south and east looks good
to hold. And after the antecedent soaking rains, another burst
of heavy rains sees PW's having moved from around 1.5" to around
1.75" or closer to the 90th percentile, and the more
efficient/cumulate impact moves us from MRGL to SLGT on the
ERO's for Tuesday-Wednesday; a nice bite into our drought
conditions should bear realization by then.
High temperatures still into the 80s with dew points near 70F
hold the first half of the week, provding a summer-like feel to
the air. But all the clouds/pcpn helps mute highs back into the
70s over the back half of the week, with dew points soon to fall
thru the 60s, maybe into the 50s by next weekend as the primary
long wave low exits and we begin to dry out again.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Ongoing convection will continue to advect east across the
terminals this morning, and a draw-down in cigs/vsbys into
restricted categories can be expected as its driving energy
completes passage. Another storm chance reappears in the
forecast late today into tonight, after a brief pause between
the two relative higher chance periods. It too will bring
deteriorating conditions and a return to restricted cigs/vsbys
leading into and thru the planning phase hours of the forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 1:01 AM CDT---------------
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