LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 6:30 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...015
FXUS64 KLIX 101130
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Starting off with early this morning, it's quiet with not much to
talk about! The lobe of moisture evident via GOES-16 Total PW has
slithered it's way west across the area along progressive
easterly low-level flow aloft, which brought a muggier feel to the
air yesterday compared to Monday. Latest 00Z suite of HREF
guidance illustrates a few coastal SE LA showers developing early
this morning, branching into the daytime hours where NBM PoP
guidance ranges in the 20-30% range mainly along the immediate
coast. Best total moisture will support this region for best
scattered shower/occasional thunderstorm chances and didn't
deviate from this thinking in the forecast. Meanwhile, conditions
across most land areas look drier compared to yesterday, as short-
range model soundings illustrate the lack of larger-scale lift in
a rather dry mid to upper tropospheric profile. HRRR ML 0-1km
winds do break down enough to support a NNW surging lake/seabreeze
boundary later this afternoon. Any localized collisions/maximized
sfc confluence could briefly pop isolated showers south of the
I-10/12 corridor, closer to the best overall available moisture.
Model soundings show shallow instability between the LCL and
inversion base between 875 and 750mb following PBL mixing to
support shallow shower/few storms collocated to best small-scale
lift provided by these boundaries thus, PoPs in the 10-15% range
primarily over the Southshore looks plausible. Likely it'll be a
dry day for most, but can't rule out a rouge shower or two over
the Southshore/river parishes.
Additionally drier air attempts to every so slightly nudge SW
into our NE areas and did introduce a steady 25th/10th percentile
nudge downwards in forecast dewpoints between 18-00Z, primarily
ahead of the approaching seabreeze boundary for SE MS where RH's
could briefly touch into the 30's. Otherwise, no major adjustments
needed for temperatures and conditions become dry/quiet going
into overnight Wed night into Thursday. KLG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Late-week into the weekend, it's quiet! High pressure remains in
control of the northern Gulf and eastern seaboard helping to
continue to suppress shower activity. Temperatures warm up some
into the low to mid 90's, but will remain in a bit of a pseudo-
continental "drier" airmass to keep dewpoints lower into the 60's
each afternoon, reducing any excessive heat concerns. Even
looking beyond 5-7 days, it's still dry as a bone with little, if
any showers around after today. Definitely something to be
thankful for, especially this time of the year. KLG
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
All forecast terminals VFR at forecast issuance. A few non-TAF
airports had brief spells of fog earlier this morning, but no
indications that currently is occurring. Radar has been detecting
some very isolated SHRA over the coastal waters overnight, but
nothing close to our coastal terminals. Only real forecast issue
today is whether there will be enough forcing to produce isolated
SHRA/TSRA across the southern terminals. Will use VCSH at
KNEW/KMSY and PROB30 TSRA for KHUM, and that may be overstating
the areal coverage. If anything develops, dissipation should occur
by sunset. Brief MVFR conditions possible if there's a direct
impact.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Progressive easterly flow across marine areas will persist today,
remaining gusty for Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions
remain in effect for eastern waters where winds will continue
between 15-20kts with gusts 25kts and waves 3-5ft. Latest guidance
suggests winds to remain elevated beyond through the day today into
this evening, with advisory conditions extended to 00Z for the same
waters, but removed 557 and adding 552 and 572 west of the MS delta,
with exercise caution headlines for surrounding zones. Winds
steadily diminish Wednesday night, remaining light through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week thanks to high pressure
building into the northern Gulf, which will continue to suppress
rain chances for atleast the next 7 days. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 92 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 90 65 91 66 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 91 74 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 89 68 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 90 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for GMZ552-572.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ555-575-
577.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ557.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for GMZ572.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...KLG
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 6:30 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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