BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 7:24 PM EDT729
FXUS61 KBOX 132324
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
724 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Not as cool tonight with a few more clouds around, but
radiation fog is possible again. Rain chances return Sunday with
highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry weather
and temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid
week. With a low chance for showers for coastal parts of
southern New England Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* More clouds
High pressure shifts offshore overnight, allowing a light south
to southwest wind to develop. Combined with some lingering higher
clouds, expecting low temperatures to be slightly higher than
what we saw this morning. While there still is a chance for some
radiation fog, not thinking it will be as widespread as last
night, and mainly in the CT River valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Best chance of some widely scattered showers and even a
thunderstorm, but not everyone will see rain.
Still expecting some weaker lift to move across our region
Sunday. Projected instability is not all that impressive,
amounting to only a few hundred J/kg. Much like today, while
there is a low chance for a stray chance, am thinking most areas
remain dry. The area most likely to experience a few showers
looks to be from southern RI into south coastal MA during the
afternoon.
Drier conditions should return Sunday night as another high
pressure over eastern Canada sends less humid air our way.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Seasonable temperatures to start the week with gradual warming.
* Dry week ahead, low chance for showers from a passing weak low
pressure system Wednesday night into Thursday.
This stretch of quiet weather conditions is anticipated next week
across the region with comfortable temperatures. Mid-level steering
to kick off the week is broad ridging and followed by weak troughing
the second-half of the week. At the surface, weak high pressure is
the primary feature, but a weak coastal low does work up the east
coast with the potential for a few showers late in the week. Next
weekend does feature some unsettled weather, but a week out, there
is time for changes.
As for temperatures this week, 850mb guidance is near normal for the
first-half of the week, with temperatures other either side of +12C.
A look into BUFKIT shows deep mixing up to 850mb throughout most of
the week, this will result in seasonable highs in the middle to
upper 70s for Monday and Tuesday. WAA aloft will result in higher
than normal temperatures Wednesday and Friday, with Thursday being
the one exception due to cloud cover and periodic showers. Friday
could be the warmest day of next week with DESI probabilities for
high temperatures greater than 85F between 40-60 percent across the
Connecticut River Valley and the Merrimack Valley. Heading into next
weekend, there is potential for a backdoor cold front on Saturday.
With high pressure in control much of this week there are very low
chances for rain. There is a weak surface low pressure system that
comes up the coast late Wednesday into Thursday, probabilities of
precipitation greater than 0.10" are greatest along the south coast,
Cape Cod, and Islands at 30-40 percent. Otherwise a mainly dry week
ahead.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight: High Confidence.
VFR. Winds light and variable. Patchy IFR late in valley fog and
stratus.
Sunday: High Confidence.
VFR. Light S to SW winds. Low risk for a few afternoon -SHRA
towards RI and SE MA.
Sunday Night: High Confidence.
VFR. Light NW to N winds.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Mainly VFR, low confidence in valley fog developing, if it were
to do so, it would likely occur 08z-13z.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: VFR.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
Relatively light winds and seas through Sunday Night. Very low
risk for a few stray showers towards the RI and SE MA coast
Sunday afternoon.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 7:24 PM EDT----------------
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