JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 2:55 PM EDT096
FXUS63 KJKL 181855
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather looks to persist through the weekend.
- Temperatures will continue to be above normal through this
weekend and into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
A gorgeous afternoon is underway with a delightful mixture of
sunshine and fair-weather cumulus. Temperatures are rising through
the 80s. Anticipate widespread high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s.
UPDATE Issued at 1025 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
Forecast was largely on track. Fog has lifted/dissipated, revealing
bright sunshine for the remainder of the day. This will help
temperatures soar to between 85 and 90F for most locations during
the afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern Kentucky
keeping winds light and skies mostly clear. These conditions have
led to a good night of radiational cooling resulting in a moderate
ridge to valley temperature split along with valley fog - locally
dense but less extensive than last night. Temperatures currently
vary from the mid 50s in the sheltered valley locations to the
lower 60s on the hills. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running in the
mid to upper 50s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict weak 5h ridging over Kentucky through
Friday as the pattern re-orients itself with persistent troughing
over the High Plains, a mainly north to south ridge through the
Great Lakes, and deep troughing over the northeast quadrant of
North America. The local ridge will also keep any energy at mid
levels well away from the area through the period. The small model
spread for the next few days continues to support the NBM as the
starting point for the forecast grids with minimal adjustments
needed - mainly just to include some terrain enhancements for
temperatures at night.
Sensible weather features another couple of warm and dry days with
more in the way of sunshine - once the initial morning valley fog
clears out. Expect a similar night compared to this one heading
into Friday morning with a moderate ridge to valley temperature
split and fog confined mainly to the river valleys. Winds will be
light through the period thanks to the sfc high pressure holding
in place.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
enhancing ridge to valley temperature differences tonight. As for
PoPs, they were kept in the low single digits to near zero
through the period - in line with the CAMs and MOS guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
Again, the main changes to the extended forecast on this shift
were to enhance the terrain based differences for temperatures
each night through the weekend. The PoP chances starting the new
work week appear to be stabilizing per recent model trends.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Highly amplified flow across North America continues into next
week. An energetic system arrives on the West Coast on Sunday and
continues progressing east through the week, absorbing a cutoff
low in the central US into a larger troughing pattern by Tuesday,
according to this morning's model suites. When this trough
eventually gets kicked and begins moving, it would be the source
of the next set of widespread precip chances.
The biggest question of the forecast is whether to trust guidance
that the pattern will actually be in motion by Tuesday. Overall
ensemble guidance is in very good agreement, both with other
ensembles as well as in run-to-run consistency, about the
progression (or lack thereof) of the upstream pattern through
Sunday, though run-to-run indicates a continued slowing bias.
Sunday, or the Day 5 and beyond timeframe, is when uncertainty
becomes readily apparent regarding how/whether the upstream cutoff
low will actually begin moving. For the last 4-5 days, models
have struggled to capture the evolution of the ongoing
pattern and this shortwave beyond FH96, pushing PoP increases in
eastern Kentucky back by another day for each day that passes,
consistently keeping "rain chances" at the periphery of the
extended forecast. This trend will continue with each subsequent
forecast until global models regain skill with the upstream waves
impacting the West Coast. Thus, NBM PoPs have not been changed,
with chances <20% through Monday and only increasing to 20-30%
Tuesday and Wednesday. That being said, a localized afternoon
pop-up shower isn't completely out of the question this weekend.
High agreeability between models in evolution through Sunday lends
itself to high confidence in temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures cool a few degrees Sunday
but remain in the 80s, which maintains through the remainder of the
forecast period. Overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to low
60s through the extended, with the exception of valleys, which will
be several degrees cooler than surrounding areas and may support
patchy fog.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions continue to persist at the terminals. The scattered
diurnal cumulus field visible in this afternoon's satellite imagery
is expected to give way to a clearing trend after sunset. This once
again favors the overnight development of radiational fog in the
deeper river valleys, but confidence in fog affecting the terminals
is too low to explicitly mention BR/FG in the 18z TAF package.
The persistence of dry air and the latest HREF probabilities suggest
that the fog should be less pertinent tonight than it was last
night, but if fog-related vsby reductions were to affect a TAF site
overnight, they would most likely happen at KLOZ or KSME. Winds are
generally expected to remain light and variable throughout the TAF
period, with a few gusts between 10 and 15 knots possible early this
afternoon via diurnal mixing.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CAMDEN/GREIF
AVIATION...MARCUS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 2:55 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
