PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 11:41 AM CDT607
FXUS63 KPAH 181641
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue through the week's end,
with commonplace 90s peaking today in the mid 90s.
- Rain chances begin to appear in the forecast by tonight, but
don't offer appreciable impact potential until early next
week. Daily chances hint at the prospect for drought relief,
but still wide model variability tempers optimism for now.
- Given rain chances and more clouds, with pattern evolution
next week, we transition back closer to seasonal norms with
highs in the lower half 80s settling in for the bulk of the
next work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
High pressure keeps a firm grip with its ridge axis extended
overhead today, as the models nudge H8 temps up another 1-2C to
20-21C by 00Z Fri. This should help us reach or exceed high
temperatures that hit into the lower 90s Wednesday, so won't be
surprised to see some mid 90s today. Fire danger remains heightened
due to the extreme heat/ongoing drought conditions, and RH values
will dip thru the 20s percentile this afternoon, but still broad
leaf shelter coverage and light winds continues to offer some
overall mute to the risk.
Shooting into the ridge's backside axis is a trof of lower
pressure centered over and extending across the High Plains,
where the CONUS wx is focused. Some of this energy breaks us
down just enough to allow encroachment for a minimal shot of
rain, with isolated/spotty mention into mainly the Ozarks
tonite-tmrw. These chances spread a little further east with
time, with the SPC thunder line drawn from the Wabash to the LBL
and westward. We can't argue against, as the ridge axis is
broken down by 00Z Sat and shifted to the east, but chances will
be scant as the low opens/lifts with time. It's alot of words
for a slgt chance mention for most of us, but given our
continued D1-D2 conditions, it's a needed focus nonetheless. WPC
outlooks SEMO/SWIL/SWKY into MRGL for the ERO, which we can't
argue against either. Any isolated thunderstorm will be capable
of a quick burst of heavier rain that might produce some issues
given the hard ground.
Even with some lower H5 heights heading into the weekend, we'll
stay 5-10F above normal with temps, running around 90F, as the
high pressure dome reasserts itself over the southern U.S.
Better rain chances look to be on the horizon, growing into the
low-mid chance category by the end of the weekend, at least into
our northwest counties. This in association with a synoptic
pattern evolution from ridging to more zonal aas a big wave of
low pressure takes over the Upper Midwest with time, and then it
really trofs out, potentially closeing, extending into/thru
early next week. Daily pcpn chances look most robust during this
pattern metamorphosis the first half of the week, and offer our
best chances at appreciable qpf which might hopefully cross your
fingers bring some relief wrt the drought (models vary on
overall wetness). But as a result of the increased pops and
therefore more clouds, temps trend back toward climo with highs
generally running in the lower-mid 80s, daily variations most
noticeable in vs out of stormier areas.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Clear skies prevail across the region this afternoon, with high
level clouds building in from the west tonight. Clouds thicken
Friday morning as a disturbance begins to approach. Low rain
chances hold off until the end of the TAF period. Light &
variable winds through tonight increase to 4-6 kts by midday
Friday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 11:41 AM CDT---------------
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