CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 17, 12:58 PM EDT096
FXUS61 KCLE 171700
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1258 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes through New England
remains in control through Thursday. A weak cold front crosses from
the north on Friday, with high pressure building back into the
Northeast to start the weekend. A warm front will lift across the
area on Sunday ahead of weak low pressure tracking out of the Upper
Midwest and into the northern Great Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM for portions
of NW Ohio as the fog has expanded. Conditions should begin to
improve now that the sun is up although stratus may take some
time to erode.
Previous discussion...An area of fog, with some locally dense
fog (visibility <1/4 of a mile), has developed across parts of
Northwest and North Central Ohio as of 2:30 AM. Already have a
Special Weather Statement out. Will monitor the fog as it
continues to expand and mature through early this morning. We
may need to expand the SPS and/or consider a targeted Dense Fog
Advisory to get through the morning commute. Outside of parts of
Northwest and North Central Ohio, favorable conditions for
radiational cooling may permit more localized fog across
rural/low-lying areas and some river valleys. Fog will generally
lift by 9 or 10 AM, taking longest across Northwest Ohio.
Outside of the fog early this morning, a continuation of our warm,
dry, and very quiet weather continues. Highs will reach the low to
mid 80s for most today, perhaps staying just below 80 along the
immediate lakeshore. Minimum RH values will again dip to 30-40%
well-inland from Lake Erie this afternoon. Lows tonight will once
again mainly dip into the 50s, though conditions will be nearly
ideal for radiational cooling which may allow a few outlying spots
to sneak into the 40s. It will be mostly sunny/clear outside of any
fog through the near term. Speaking of, there likely will be a fair
amount of radiation fog in the typical more rural/low-lying areas
and river valleys tonight into early Thursday morning...we'll
probably see more fog (locally dense) across interior Northeast OH
and Northwest PA tonight into early Thursday than recent days when
the fog has been more prevalent out west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and quiet weather continues to end the work week. A backdoor
cold front will push south-southwest across the area late Thursday
night and Friday morning. There will be a wind shift and airmass
change with the front, but no rain is expected. Mainly sunny/clear
skies will continue with some exceptions...patchy fog is possible
each late night/early morning, mainly confined to the usual
rural/low-lying areas and some river valleys...some afternoon
cumulus is likely Thursday...with increased clouds likely along and
behind the front late Thursday night into Friday. Thursday looks
like the warmest day of the week, with highs ranging from the upper
70s and lower 80s across far Northeast OH/Northwest PA to the mid
to upper 80s across Northwest and Central OH. Friday will trend
cooler, and the forecast has trended cooler given a slightly faster
frontal passage...with highs in the low to mid 70s along Lake Erie
and into far Northeast OH/Northwest PA increasing to the low to mid
80s towards Marion and Mt Vernon. Overnight lows will be in the 50s
to lower 60s Thursday night...trending cooler Friday night. Lows
Friday night will likely get into the 40s in a good chunk of
interior Northeast OH and Northwest PA, with locations towards
Central and Northwest OH (and the lakeshore) staying in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging surface and aloft will persist through the weekend across
the eastern and southeastern U.S., as an initial upper trough and
weak low pressure shift out of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
and across the northern Great Lakes on Sunday. Ridging slowly erodes
from the west early next week as re-enforcing troughing drops into
the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and gradually works east towards
the Great Lakes. A warm front is expected to lift across the local
area Saturday night into early Sunday. A cold front is expected to
approach from the west early next week, but likely won't move into
the local area until Tuesday or Wednesday.
Another warm and dry day is expected on Saturday with temperatures
trending back into the upper 70s to mid 80s, several degrees warmer
than what's expected on Friday. Temperatures and dew points will
increase a bit for Sunday and the start of next week behind the warm
front...expect highs in the low-mid 80s and overnight lows
struggling to dip below the 60s. The forecast still maintains some
occasional chance POPs for showers and perhaps a bit of thunder to
end the weekend and start next week, though at this point it remains
unclear when, or if, a more widespread/wetting rain will occur. Low
POPs begin arriving as early as Saturday night with the warm front.
Daytime heating and any weak mesoscale boundaries (such as a lake
breeze) may contribute to isolated to widely-scattered showers and
thunder on Sunday, especially during the afternoon and early
evening. Am expecting similar coverage of rain potential on Monday
with the cold front still well off to the west...some guidance
suggests a weak shortwave may work across the region on Monday,
which could help fire off at least isolated to widely scattered
shower and thunder activity. Models and ensembles disagree quite a
bit regarding how quickly the upper trough and cold front work east
towards the middle of next week...rain chances would increase as the
front approaches and moves through, most likely in the Tuesday or
Wednesday timeframe. Given considerable spread among guidance, the
forecast will continue to mention generic chances for showers and
perhaps thunder until confidence in organized rain increases.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
At the surface, a high pressure ridge continues to extend from
New England and vicinity through 18Z/Thurs. Dry weather and
mainly VFR are expected through the TAF period. A weak MSLP
gradient accompanying the ridge will allow our regional surface
winds to be primarily variable in direction and around 5 knots
in magnitude. However, a NW'erly to NE'erly lake breeze of about
5 knots is expected through ~00Z/Thurs and after ~16Z/Thurs. In
addition, a land breeze is expected between ~04Z/Thurs and
~14Z/Thurs. The lake and land breeze circulations are expected
to impact locations within several miles of Lake Erie, including
KCLE and KERI. Patchy radiation mist/fog and MVFR or worse
conditions are expected from ~09Z/Thurs to ~13Z/Thurs,
especially roughly along and south of a KFDY to KYNG line.
Outlook...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected through Sunday
morning, but patchy fog with non-VFR possible from about 09Z to 13Z
on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR possible
this Sunday afternoon through evening.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure extending from New England to the Central Great
Lakes will continue to influence the region with generally light
wind and wave conditions through Thursday. A weak cold front
will settle south across Lake Erie on Friday with a wind shift
to the northeast and speeds of 10-15 knots. Northeast to east
winds are expected to strengthen to 10-20 knots on Saturday as
strong Canadian high pressure builds southeast into Quebec.
Depending on if the flow is more northeasterly or easterly will
impact if higher waves reach the nearshore waters or if they are
focused more in the open waters. Will need to monitor
conditions for Saturday with a chance of needing a Small Craft
Advisory and Beach Hazards for a portion of the lake. Conditions
should improve by Sunday with winds shifting around to the
south with offshore flow.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 17, 12:58 PM EDT---------------
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