PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 1:45 AM EDT121
FXUS61 KPBZ 140545
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
145 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected through much of the week under
high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm today
---------------------------------------------------------------
Early morning cloud cover will continue to clear from north to
south as a weak upper level trough completes its passage across
the Upper Ohio Valley region. Patchy early morning river valley
steam fog is also expected as the clearing occurs.
Otherwise, surface high pressure will remain centered to our
north across Ontario today. 500 mb heights will also rise
through the day as a strong ridge across the central CONUS
begins to drift eastward. Mostly sunny skies are expected
today, with just a few diurnal cumulus clouds possible as
convective temperatures are reached. Lowered dew points a few
degrees below NBM guidance with mixing down of dry air today.
High temperatures are expected to be around 10 degrees above
average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm weather continues through Tuesday
- Low shower chances return for the ridges Tuesday night
--------------------------------------------------------------
Surface high pressure will strengthen as it drifts across
eastern Canada and the NE CONUS. At the same time, the strong
ridge across the central CONUS will continue to build eastward
through Tuesday. This pattern should maintain dry and warm
weather through early in the week.
A coastal low is expected to begin moving northward across the
Carolinas Tuesday night, as high pressure remains centered
across the NE CONUS. The upper ridge is also progged to weaken
as the low approaches. Some increase in cloud cover is expected
ahead of the approaching low. Moisture rotating around the low
could spread a few showers as far west as the ridges of PA and
WV Tuesday night, though rain chances are expected to remain
limited with a dry easterly flow.
High temperatures are expected to remain above average, with
Monday being the warmest day of the period. Highs Tuesday could
be a couple of degrees lower than Monday, as 500mb heights
begin to fall ahead of the approaching low. Overnight lows will
still be close to, or a few degrees above average, with
efficient night time radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures continue
- Dry for most of the area through late week
- Low rain chances return Saturday
------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate low pressure is expected to track
slowly northward along the Mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday.
Minimal precip chances are expected near the PA and WV ridges,
through a dry, downsloping easterly flow should preclude precip
across the remainder of the area, though some increase in cloud
cover is expected.
Ridging is then progged to build across the Ohio Valley region
behind the exiting low through the day on Thursday. The ridge
is then progged to track slowly eastward across the Upper Ohio
Valley region through Friday, maintaining dry weather.
Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above average on
Wednesday, reaching levels around 10 degrees above average by
late week as 500mb heights rise.
Ensembles indicate a trough across the Midwest will advance
slowly eastward toward the weekend. At this time, minimal rain
chances are in the forecast as this trough approaches, through
uncertainty exists in the strength of the trough, and the
amount of moisture available.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF period, with the
exception of a brief period of river valley fog near FKL between
09Z to 12Z this morning. High to mid-level clouds will persist
south of PIT for the next 3-4 hours before drier air moves in
from the north, as observed on GOES-19 water vapor satellite
imagery.
Diurnal driven cu appears favorable south and east of
Pittsburgh, mostly along the ridges, after 15Z. Fair weather cu
will dissolve after dark with decoupling.
.OUTLOOK....
Early morning river valley fog potential continues Monday
morning. Otherwise, high confidence of VFR under high pressure
with winds be light and variable from the north/northeast.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 1:45 AM EDT---------------
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