MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 12:33 PM CDT ...New Aviation...591
FXUS64 KMOB 081733
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region is beginning to
lift away to the northeast. As it departs, a weak, residual upper
trough is expected to linger across the southeast US through the
week. By Friday and into the weekend, the trough begins to
amplify, digging further southeast as it moves into the western
Atlantic. The base of this trough may dig as far south as the
Florida Peninsula. At the surface, the frontal boundary that
pushed through the area yesterday has stalled over the central
Gulf. Much drier air has begun filtering into the area, allowing
for dewpoints this morning to crater into the low to mid 50s. This
push of drier air will be very brief, however, as high pressure
to our north anchors itself over the Appalachians and a weak low
pressure system tries to develop over the east central Gulf. These
features will allow for winds to become more easterly, helping to
advect moisture back into the area later today from east to west.
This could potentially lead to a few isolated showers and storms
along coastal counties this afternoon and again on Tuesday
afternoon.
By Wednesday, guidance continues to suggest that another cold air
damming event could set up across the southeast US as low pressure
systems attempt to develop along the stalled front off the US east
coast and the high lingers over the Appalachians. If it manages to
reach us, it probably will not result in much cooler temperatures,
but guidance does suggest that it could lead to drier conditions and
lower dewpoints for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Highs through the period will generally range from the mid 80s to
the low 90s and lows will range from the low to mid 60s inland to
the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents
today quickly increases to a High Risk on Tuesday and Wednesday. The
rip current risk subsides back to a Low risk by Thursday. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR flight category remains across the region through Tuesday. An
isolated shower or two can't be ruled out this evening into the
early overnight, primarily across the coastal counties. Winds will
remain out of the north through early this evening around 5 to 10
knots, turning out of the east at 5 to 10 knots overnight tonight.
Nearer the coast, winds increase overnight tonight out of the east
at 10 to 15 knots, gusting upwards of 20 knots at times, strongest
along the immediate coast. This will last through the day Tuesday.
MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Moderate to strong northerly to northeasterly winds will continue
through the early morning hours before briefly subsiding by late
morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10am for our
local Gulf waters, the MS Sound, and Mobile Bay. Moderate to
strong easterly winds develop tonight and will continue through
Wednesday. Another Small Craft Advisory is in place for the local
Gulf waters late tonight through Tuesday morning. A light to
moderate northeasterly to easterly flow follows for Wednesday into
Thursday. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 69 88 68 88 67 90 67 92 / 10 20 10 10 0 10 0 0
Pensacola 72 87 70 88 71 90 70 90 / 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0
Destin 73 87 71 87 73 89 71 90 / 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0
Evergreen 66 88 64 89 64 91 62 92 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 66 88 64 89 64 92 64 93 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0
Camden 67 87 65 88 63 91 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 68 87 66 89 65 91 63 93 / 20 10 0 10 10 10 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 12:33 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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