JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 2:45 PM EDT058
FXUS63 KJKL 141845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
245 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather is expected to persist through Thursday night.
- Temperatures are forecast to be above normal through Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
The early afternoon update is out. There are no significant
changes.
UPDATE Issued at 1037 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
Based on latest observed and latest CAMS, removed sprinkles from
the forecast in the greater Lake Cumberland area for the remainder
of the morning into early afternoon. Also made minor edits to Sky
grids and updated hourly temperature grids through the early
afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 540 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
Early this morning an upper level ridge extended from the western
Gulf/TX into the mid MS Valley to western Great Lakes region while
an upper level trough axis extended from Canada into the Northeast
to the Southeast US Coast to FL. In northerly flow in between a
weak shortwave/disturbance was dropping across the Commonwealth
at this time. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extended
from upstate NY to the Appalachians while a weak nearly stationary
frontal zone extended from central KY to low pressure over the
Dakotas. Some convection and any lightning has generally passed
west and northwest of eastern KY overnight mainly nearer to I-65
though some weak showers have been passing west of I-75 over the
past hour or two. Cloud cover has limited low temperatures tonight
and kept ridge/valley temperature differences and valley fog
formation to a minimum.
Today and tonight, the northern section of the upper trough to the
east and northeast of eastern Ky should advance northeast leaving
the southern end near the coast of the Carolinas which should cut
off as a 591+ dm ridge builds over the Great Lakes. A general
trend of height rises are expected across the Commonwealth today
and tonight. The trend of increasing height rises should continue
into Monday morning as the upper ridge remains centered over the
Great Lakes and the upper low meanders near the coast of the
Carolinas. At the surface, the weak boundary should remain from
the Commonwealth to the Dakotas/northern Plains while upper
riding centered east of the Appalachians remains in place.
Despite the boundary nearby today, once the shortwave/disturbance
passes this morning, the trend of 500 mb height rises should lead
to a decrease in coverage of any convection over central to
eastern KY. A few sprinkles or light showers will remain possible
through the morning. Otherwise, by tonight, an cumulus or low
clouds and mid clouds should diminish and give way to mostly clear
skies. Larger differences in ridge/valley temperatures should
result tonight along with patchy valley fog if not areas of valley
fog along rivers. Deeper eastern valleys should drop off to the
mid 50s with low 60s for the coalfield ridges and more open
terrain locations. Highs today and tomorrow should continue an
upward trend and remain above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
Guidance is generally in much better agreement over the eastern
Conus with the upper level pattern from Monday night to Thursday.
The consensus of guidance is for a broad upper low over the
Carolinas on Monday evening with an upper level ridge centered
over the Great Lakes. The upper low is progged to meander toward
the Appalachians/Blue Ridge into Tuesday night before trekking to
the north northeast and into the Mid Atlantic states through
Wednesday night and then becoming an open wave on Thursday and
merging with an upper trough developing over eastern Canada into
the Northeast. Shortwave upper ridging is expected to build into
the Commonwealth late Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the
axis of this ridge should shift east of eastern KY Friday. At that
point, an upper level low and broad trough working across the the
Central Conus will begin to approach the MS Valley and OH Valley
regions. Multiple shortwaves rotating through this trough could
cross eastern KY from Friday to the end of the period as it is
probable that the 500 mb trough axis lingers west of the area
through Saturday.
The upper level low to the southeast will bring an increase in mid
and low level moisture from late Monday into Wednesday. At the
same time, a sfc ridge of high pressure should generally persist
across the Appalachians. The increase in cloud cover will likely
limit diurnal ranges a bit from Monday night to Wednesday, leading
to smaller ridge/valley low temperature differences Monday night
and Tuesday with valley fog more patchy in nature on those night
as well.
With upper level ridging and sfc high pressure dominating and a
considerable amount of sunshine anticipated, Thursday may end up
being the warmest day of the week. Valley locations, especially
in the Big Sandy region as well as areas near Lake Cumberland
may approach the 90 degree mark for highs.
The next chance for showers and storms and some rainfall across
the region looks to arrive by the end of the period. Following
high temperatures averaging a few degrees above normal for most of
the long term period, the increase in moisture and clouds along
with chances for convection should result in highs dropping back
to right around normal for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR conditions are observed at all terminals in the area this
afternoon. The latest satellite imagery and recent surface
observations depict a developing diurnal cu field and light/variable
winds. This diurnal cu field will subside after sunset, and the
clearing trend favors the development of valley fog tonight. Fog
coverage is likely to be greater than it was last night, but
confidence is not currently high enough to mention resultant vsby
reductions at any of the TAF sites. Probabilistic guidance
suggests a less than 30 percent chance of reaching MVFR-or-worse
visibility thresholds at LOZ and SME, but these probabilities have
been trending upwards with each model run. If this trend
continues, future TAF packages may need to consider an additional
from group for reduced visibilities between 08z and 13z at these
two sites. After any valley fog burns off tomorrow morning, VFR
conditions are forecast to return area-wide. High clouds may
spread across the region from the east tomorrow, but a dominant
surface high pressure system will keep winds light/variable and
visibilities well above 6SM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MARCUS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 2:45 PM EDT---------------
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