JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:51 PM EDT112
FXUS63 KJKL 131851
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
251 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather is expected to persist over the next week.
- Temperatures are forecast to be above normal well into next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
Shortwave ridging over the area breaks down through the remainder of
the weekend, with a disturbance moving across the area within
northerly mid-level flow Sunday morning through Sunday evening on
the backside of a weak longwave trough/low.
Models, some CAMS in particular, develop showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms north of the Ohio River, with this activity moving
south into northern Kentucky. Low-end PoPs have been carried over
into our western and northwestern counties later this afternoon
through tonight, and then extending south primarily along and west
of the escarpment. Model soundings suggest any activity that reaches
our CWA will be on a weakening/dissipating trend, with precipitation
generated from mid-level clouds above a dry lower atmosphere. Thus,
any shower activity that does occur is not likely to produce
measureable rainfall.
Better instability arrives for Sunday with cooler temperatures
aloft, but the lower levels will remain quite dry. Thus, have kept
thunder chances quite low, with very low-end shower chances
primarily over the far southwest in the morning to midday period,
and then dry thereafter.
Temperatures continue their gradual warming trend, with lows tonight
in the 50s to lower 60s rising on average about 1 to 3 degrees for
Sunday night. Highs Sunday will reach into the 80s once again, with
upper 80s possible toward the Bluegrass region.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 555 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
The period is expected to begin with an upper level trough
shifting off the Northeast coast and across parts of the Maritimes
as the period begins while upper trough lingers from near the Mid
Atlantic coast to the Northeast Gulf. Meanwhile upper level
ridging is progged to extend from parts of the Southern Plains to
the mid MS Valley to Great Lakes and centered over the western
Great Lakes. Further west a shortwave trough having moved out of
the western Conus is expected to extend through parts of the
Plains as the period begins with another trough from BC into the
Great Basin. At the sfc, a nearly stationary boundary is to Ce
expected to extend from an area of low pressure in SD to the Lower
OH Valley/western Ky area while a ridge of sfc high pressure
should extend from the Appalachians to the mid Atlantic states.
Sunday night to Monday night, the southern end of the lingering
trough near the eastern seaboard is progged to develop into a
broad upper low centered to the east and southeast of eastern KY
while upper ridging extending form the Southern Plains to mid MS
Valley to the Great Lakes and Ontario remains centered over the
Great Lakes. Further west, the initial shortwave trough/upper low
in the Plains should move east and northeast toward Manitoba to
the Upper MS Valley while the next shortwave moves toward the
Northern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure is progged to remain across eastern KY and the
Appalachians. An increase in moisture between 850 mb and 750 mb
should occur as the upper level low begins to evolve to the
southeast of eastern KY. Temperatures a few degrees above normal
should remain during this timeframe and sufficient clearing or
breaks in the clouds each night should favor a small to moderate
ridge valley temperature splits and valley fog formation both
Sunday night and Monday night.
Tuesday to Wednesday night, guidance varies with the evolution of
the upper level low with the recent ECMWF runs taking this system
into the Appalachians and weakening it to an open wave by late
Wednesday night while GFS runs have the upper low meandering north
and northeast nearer to the eastern seaboard and toward the mid
Atlantic coast. Under the GFS scenario, the axis of upper ridging
centered in the southeast Conus nears eastern KY at midweek. Both
the ECMWF and GFS guidance have an upper level trough taking
shape from the Hudson Bay/Ontario area south into the Central
Conus/Plains at midweek. Differences in heights lead to
differences in temperatures for midweek as well as cloud cover and
the ECMWF scenario could even lead to a little bit of rain near
the VA border. No adjustments were made to the NBM PPI/pops that
are more heavily weighted toward the ECMWF and its ensemble,
brought some slight chance pops to the VA/KY border from near
Black Mtn to Pike County with the remainder of the area dry on
Wednesday. Also, the NBM temperatures were generally in between
the warmer GFS guidance and the cooler ECMWF guidance for this
timeframe with temperatures up to about 5 degrees forecast at this
time. Assuming some clearing both nights, small to moderate
ridge/valley temperature splits as well as valley fog would be
favored.
Thursday to Friday, the consensus of guidance is for shortwave
ridging to move east across the Commonwealth for Thursday/Thursday
evening with the upper low/trough that potentially influences the
weather at midweek departing to the east and northeast. Although
there area variations from run to run and model to model, guidance
has the 500 mb trough gradually moving from the Central Conus
toward the Great Lakes to MS Valley/Lower OH Valley to end the
period. With a sfc system tracking toward the Great Lakes to OH
valley region as well. The NBM had some slight chances pops during
this timeframe which seemed reasonable to introduce what may be
the next, albeit small, chance of measurable rain for eastern KY.
Above normal temperatures for highs remain forecast for Thursday
with a ridge/valley split favored with ridging at the sfc and
aloft dominating for Thursday night. Cloud cover and potential
convection should result in a downward trend for highs on
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with the exception
of river valley fog formation expected beginning around or after
the 03z to 06z time frame tonight, and possibly lingering as late
as 14z Sunday in some locations before dissipating. Some
convective shower activity could affect western portions of the
area after 22z Saturday, but have opted not include anything in
the TAFs for that at this point. Outside of any stray convective
showers, light and variable winds are expected through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:51 PM EDT---------------
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