JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 11:36 AM EDT548
FXUS63 KJKL 111536
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1136 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather is expected to persist for the next week.
- Temperatures should warm to near today and climb above normal by
the weekend and remain near those levels into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
Mid-level cloud cover continues to be poorly forecast by models
across the northern half of the forecast area. The late morning
update extrapolates this cloud cover slowly south while gradually
dissipating into the afternoon as convective clouds (cumulus and
towering cumulus) develop over the area.
UPDATE Issued at 955 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
Models are performing poorly with regards to the mid-level cloud
cover over the forecast area, particularly the northern half. Used
pencil edits to account for this over the next 2 to 3 hours.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations as
well as satellite trends. This led to no substantial changes at
this time. Valley fog should continue to lift and dissipate over
the next couple of hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 600 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
Early this morning, an upper level low was centered over northern
sections of Quebec with an upper trough extending into the Great
Lakes to OH Valley. Further upstream another upper low was
centered west of Hudson Bay. Further south and southeast, an
upper ridge was centered in the Atlantic to the northeast of
Bermuda while another upper ridge was centered over Northern
Mexico/ Southern Plains with ridging north across section of the
High Plains as well as Central and Northern Plains to upper MS
Valley. Further west, an upper low and associated trough was
working across western sections of the Conus. At the sfc a ridge
of sfc high pressure extended across the Central to Southern
Appalachians. Some mid clouds associated with the upper level
trough and a weak disturbance moving through it have moved across
eastern KY overnight with breaks and times of clearing, especially
in the more eastern locations. Valley fog has developed along the
larger creeks, area rivers, and lakes particularly where clearing
or breaks in the clouds have occurred. Some light showers or
sprinkles have gradually moved from Central KY to northern Middle
TN and the Cumberland Plateau of TN with some of this activity
having passed across southern Wayne County overnight.
Today and tonight, the upper level trough axis is expected to
shift east and southeast across eastern KY through this evening
and further east of the area tonight. A couple of disturbances
moving through this trough could lead to additional sprinkles
today for locations nearer to the TN border. Otherwise, a few mid
level clouds at times today should be the only notable weather
associated with the trough once valley fog lifts and dissipates.
Temperatures should moderate another couple of degrees compared
to Wednesday.
A trend of rising heights is anticipated over eastern KY tonight
while a ridge of surface high pressure will continue to extend
across the Appalachians. This should support another night of
small to moderate ridge/valley temperature splits and valley fog
development.
Surface and upper level ridging remain the dominant weather
features across the Commonwealth for Friday. Temperatures should
moderate another degree or two compared to today.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 545 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
The period is expected to begin with an upper level low centered
over eastern sections of Hudson Bay with a trough south to the
northern Great Lakes and another shortwave trough extending from
New England along the eastern seaboard to the eastern Gulf.
Further west, an upper level ridge is expected to be centered over
the Southern Plains and extend toward the mid to upper MS valley
and also into the Lower OH Valley and TN Valley. Even further to
the west, a broad trough is expected to extend from Alberta and
Saskatchewan south across much of the western Conus. Further
upstream of that, a series of shortwaves are progged to be nearing
the BC to Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure is expected to be in place from New England to the
Appalachians to the northern sections of the Gulf. Well to the
north a sfc low associated with the upper low in Canada should be
over northern sections of Quebec with the trailing frontal zone
extending across James Bay to northern sections of Ontario,
Manitoba, and Quebec.
Friday night to Saturday night, the upper level low over Canada
should weaken to an open wave with with the associated shortwave trough
tracking across Ontario and Quebec to the Maritimes to Northeast
Conus to mid Atlantic. Across eastern KY not much change in 500 mb
heights is anticipated as upper level ridging becomes centered
over Northern Mexico/Rio Grande Valley with the axis of the ridge
shifting to near the MS Valley to western Ontario. Further west,
the initial shortwave trough in the western Conus should shift to
the Rockies to High Plains vicinity with the next shortwave
upstream reaching near the BC coast to Pacific Northwest. The
frontal zone associated with the trough passing across eastern
sections of Canada may drop to the St Lawrence Valley to eastern
Great Lakes to Northern Plains by late Saturday night while sfc
high pressure becomes centered over the Southern Plains to
northern sections of the Gulf states.
Across eastern KY, dry weather should prevail though the
shortwave passing to the north and northeast leading to an
increase of mid and high level moisture with convection not out of
the question late Saturday to Saturday night across sections of
OH and IN. Temperatures should continue on the gradual upward
trend that has occurred earlier this week and through the short
term period. A ridge/valley split of small to moderate magnitude
is anticipated along with valley fog both nights.
Sunday to Monday night, guidance varies across the eastern Conus
in handling troughing that lingers near the Northeast U.S. Coast
south along near or east of the Southeast U.S. coast between upper
ridging in the Atlantic and another upper level ridge extending
from the Southern Plains and northern Mexico the western to
central Great Lakes. Further west, troughing is expected to extend
from from into parts of the western Conus. An upper low developing
somewhere along the eastern seaboard appears probable considering
the range of guidance, but the location and strength are
uncertain. The surface boundary initially north of the area may
continue to sag across sections of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
states to near and perhaps south of the OH River as sfc high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic and
Northeast. With the axis of this ridge to the west of the region,
it should generally be the dominant weather feature across the
Commonwealth and the frontal passage will lead to a negligible
change in sensible weather. There is a several dm difference in
heights across the Commonwealth/eastern Ky between ensemble
members which would affect temperatures and whether or not highs
are near to a couple of degrees above normal or if they are closer
to 5 degrees above normal or more.
Tuesday and Wednesday, guidance varies from run to run and model
to model with the handling of the upper low near the eastern
seaboard. Solutions that take the upper low closer to the
Appalachians at midweek would lead to colder temperatures and more
cloud cover to end the period. The ECMWF and GEFS means as well as
the GEPS mean generally keep higher heights across eastern KY to
end the period as compared to the 00Z operational run which has
the upper low nearer to the Southern Appalachians to end the
period where the previous run was southwest of Cape Cod at that
time. NBM guidance generally seems to split the difference between
the guidance with a bit of a lean toward the higher
heights/warmer solution. Temperatures are generally expected to be
a few degrees above normal as the middle of next week approaches.
With sfc high pressure progged to extend across the Appalachian
region for Tuesday night, a ridge/valley temperature split and
valley fog are favored.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A passing upper level disturbance has brought some mid level
clouds to the region overnight, with some of these clouds
lingering from near KSYM to KJKL to the VA border east to near
KSJS. These should continue to move east and southeast and perhaps
diminish over the next couple of hours. With a sfc ridge of high
pressure generally dominating, MVFR to IFR or lower river valley
fog has developed where skies have cleared or were mostly clear
overnight, with only KSME affected. This fog should lift and
dissipate through about 14Z, and thereafter, all locations should
experience VFR for the remainder of the period. The exception to
this is reductions as low as IFR if not locally lower in valley
between 03Z and the end of the TAF period. However, that fog is
not expected affect the TAF sites. Light and variable winds are
expected throughout the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 11:36 AM EDT---------------
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