PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 1:11 AM EDT582
FXUS61 KPBZ 090511
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
111 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and and seasonable temperatures can be
through the week. There is a slight chance precipitation returns
by the end of the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and sunny conditions continue today.
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure centered over the region will allow for maximum
radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds, so
isolated river valley fog will be possible this morning given
the relatively warm river temperatures. Overnight lows will
bottom out around 10 degrees below normal across the region on
average.
Dry and clear weather will continue today, with temperatures
returning close to seasonal norms with rising heights /
increased thickness.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with a gradual warming trend
- Possible valley fog in the morning hours
--------------------------------------------------------------
Latest ensemble guidance shows good continuity with previous
runs, and there is still relatively high confidence of dry
conditions and a warming trend in temperatures with surface high
pressure in control. Forecast temperatures are back to normal
by Wednesday.
With limited cloud coverage, radiational cooling during the
night will allow lows to consistently drop below normal through
the period, and have blended in NBM 10th percentile minimum
temperatures to account for this. Additionally, patchy river
valley fog will be possible each morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warming temperatures and dry conditions continue
- Temperature and precipitation uncertainty increases this weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------
High confidence that the dry pattern continues into the
weekend, as ensemble guidance continues to show good run to run
continuity.
Ridging / sfc high pressure will maintain dry conditions before
the potential for an upper shortwave dropping out of Canada
increases precipitation chances later in the weekend. Latest
ensemble guidance shows a 5-15% chance of >0.01" of
precipitation during any 6hr period Sunday and Monday, with
highest chances north of PGH.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered NE of the area will maintain VFR and
light E-SE wind through the TAF period. Convective temperatures
are expected to be higher today than recent days, precluding a
cumulus layer outside of the ridges.
.OUTLOOK....
High pressure is expected to maintain VFR conditions through
Saturday. A crossing upper trough could result in an increase
in mid level clouds Thursday, though the surface high should
maintain dry weather.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 1:11 AM EDT---------------
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