JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 3:03 PM EDT793
FXUS63 KJKL 081903 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
303 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through
Tuesday.
- Temperatures will gradually warm to near normal by Thursday and
continue into next week with no rainfall expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
Late morning obs are blended into the forecast without any
substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 805 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
Valley fog lingers across much of the region, but has begun to
lift. A few mid slope and ridgetop areas such as KBYL, KCPF, and
KPBZ are reporting dense fog. As we move through the next couple
of hours the fog should lift and dissipate with improving
visibilities in all areas by 9 AM to 10 AM EDT. Otherwise, under
high pressure, temperatures will moderate a couple of degrees
compared to Sunday, though still peak about 5 degrees below normal
highs for this date.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 540 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
The period begins with an upper level low centered in the
southeast Hudson Bay/Northern Ontario areas and upper level
troughing south into the Great Lakes and eastern Conus. This
troughing was in between ridging in the western Atlantic and
another upper ridge extending from the Baja/portions of the
Pacific into the Four Corners and portions of the Rockies. West
of that, an upper level trough is nearing the Pacific coast. At
the surface, a ridge of high pressure extended from the Southern
Great Lakes to mid Atlantic sates and into the OH Valley region. A
few mid level clouds move across the region overnight, but skies
have generally been mostly clear. This has allowed for valley fog
to form and this has likely been dense in some locations per
region KY Mesonet cameras. Valley temperatures dropped into the
40s to near 50 with temperatures generally in the low 50s
elsewhere.
A general and gradual increase in 500 mb heights is progged across
the area today as the axis of upper level troughing works slowly
east and northeast of eastern KY. This trend of rising heights at
500 mb is expected to continue into tonight as well. This should
occur although a broad upper trough should persist from Canada
into the MS Valley and portions of the eastern Conus in between
upper level ridging in the Atlantic and upper level ridging from
northern Mexico north into parts of the Great Basin and Rockies
that builds into the parts of the Southern Plains to Central
Plains and High Plains. Sfc high pressure remains from the mid
Atlantic and Northeast into parts of the Appalachians during this
time despite inverted troughing extending into eastern KY that may
tend to drift westward. This inverted troughing could be a focus
for a bit more cloud cover at times. Otherwise, diurnally driven
cumulus should develop both today and on Tuesday after overnight
river valley fog lifts and dissipates. Temperatures will gradually
moderate today and into Tuesday, however they should remain below
normal.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
The long-term period opens Wednesday morning with upper-level
ridging departing to our east as mean troughing, extending
southward from James Bay to the upper Mississippi Valley,
approaches from the west. There appear to be two shortwave
features associated with this trough, one of which will be over
the Lower Ohio Valley and Middle Tennessee Valley while another is
found over the Upper Midwest. Further west, an impressive ridge
axis extends from Texas northward into the Arctic regions of
Nunavut. At the surface, ridging extends from a strong surface
high over the North Atlantic westward and then southward along the
spine of the Appalachian Mountains.
That high pressure ridging will continue to dominate our weather
through Wednesday night. By Thursday, the aforementioned upper
level shortwaves consolidate into a single more robust trough
which will then pivot over the Central Appalachians on
Thursday/Thursday night. Models disagree on the amount of moisture
return that is realized across eastern Kentucky, with a few
solutions suggesting PWATs rise to over 1.2 inches, leading to
sufficient CAPE for some showers and even weak thunderstorms. A
majority of the guidance remains much drier, with little or no
instability, keeping this systems passage dry. The official
forecast remains dry on Thursday/Thursday night for the time
being, but this will need to be monitored. Heights begin rising
aloft and surface high pressure reassumes control heading into
Friday/Saturday until another robust upper low drops nearly due
south from the Hudson Bay early next week. At that point, there is
considerable spread in model solutions, with some solutions
depicting the low diving more into the Mid-Atlantic and allowing
the upper-level ridge more of a drying influence over our weather
while other solutions keep the ridging further west and allow the
low to sink right across the Great Lakes, and perhaps eventually
toward the Middle Ohio Valley. For now, the official forecast at
the end of the long-term retains the dry NBM solution for
continuity as the model guidance has been producing widely varying
solutions in recent days. However, a majority of the LREF members
eventually do bring in some light QPF either by the end of the
long-term period or in the next few days that follow.
In sensible terms, look for a continued warming trend area-wide
through at least Sunday with primarily fair conditions outside of
the typical nocturnal radiation fog in sheltered valley locales. A
stray shower cannot be entirely ruled out on Thursday, but the
probability remains too low to mention in the forecast at this
time. Temperatures are forecast to start the period with
highs/lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s and upper 40s to upper
50s on Wednesday, warming to the middle to upper 80s and mid 50s
to lower 60s by Sunday. Generally cooler temperatures are favored
to eventually return next week along with the chance for at least
light rain -- that might occur as early as late Sunday or as late
as sometime in the middle to latter portions of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
Fog will again bring IFR or worse conditions to many of the
deeper valleys during the late night and early morning hours, but
it is not likely to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions
with winds less than 10 kts are forecast through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 3:03 PM EDT---------------
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