CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 7:32 PM EDT651
FXUS61 KCLE 082332
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
732 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will gradually move offshore of the New
England coast by Wednesday. A weak cold front will drop across
the region Wednesday night into Thursday followed by high
pressure returning across the Great Lakes for the end of the
week and start of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure at the surface is centered over the
southern Great Lakes this afternoon as mid/upper troughing
remains across the Great Lakes and NE CONUS. This is maintaining
below normal temperatures and quiet conditions, but a warming
trend is on the horizon. The broad mid/upper trough is already
starting to lift out in response to a closed low approaching
the northern California and Oregon coasts. These mid-level
height rises will continue through Tuesday night, with the
surface high also drifting offshore of the New England coast by
Wednesday morning. This will set up an increasingly southern
component to the low-level flow and resultant warm air
advection.
Before the warm up, clear skies, light winds, and the already
cool and dry antecedent conditions beneath the surface high
will support strong radiational cooling tonight. Feel that
temperatures will get quite cold inland from the lake, but
current dew points suggest that they stay a few degrees above
frost thresholds. Even so, lows will fall to around 40 in much
of interior NE Ohio and NW PA, with pockets of upper 30s likely.
Low to mid 40s are expected elsewhere, except around 50 near the
lakeshore. After the cold morning start, temperatures will warm
nicely Tuesday, with highs in the mid/upper 70s in most areas,
except low/mid 70s in far NE Ohio and NW PA. Lows Tuesday night
will be milder, with generally upper 40s/low 50s, except low/mid
40s in interior NE Ohio and NW PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warm air advection continuing Wednesday as mid/upper shortwave
ridging continues to build into the eastern Great Lakes will
support further warming, with highs reaching the mid/upper 70s
again, and even low 80s in NW Ohio. An Omega block will begin to
develop by Wednesday night and Thursday as the aforementioned
closed low pinwheels over the western CONUS and a northern
stream mid/upper trough progresses across Ontario and Quebec,
allowing sharp mid/upper ridging to amplify in between across
the Plains. The southern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley
regions will be between the trough sliding by to the NE and
ridge building to the west, so quiet and seasonably warm weather
will continue. A weak cold front accompanying the northern
stream trough will drop through the region Wednesday night, but
no airmass change is expected as the cold pool slides well to
our NE.
High Thursday will remain warm, with widespread mid/upper 70s
and some low 80s in NW Ohio and along the U.S. 30 corridor. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the upper 40s/mid 50s, with low/mid
50s Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Omega block will continue Friday into the weekend as
Canadian high pressure gradually slides from Ontario and Quebec
to offshore of Nova Scotia by Saturday. This will keep dry and
warm conditions in place through Saturday, but deterministic
guidance is starting to hint at a potent closed low and/or
mid/upper trough dropping through the Great Lakes Sunday into
Monday, dragging a cold front through the region. There is much
uncertainty on the timing and evolution of the potential
system, so stayed with NBM POPS Saturday night through Monday,
with slight chances for showers Saturday night into Sunday,
gradually drying out Sunday night and Monday. If a deeper trough
materializes, then temperatures could be cooler with greater
coverage of showers and lake-effect showers. This will be ironed
out in the coming days.
Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s Friday
through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions persist during the TAF period as high pressure
influences the region. Some localized river valley fog is
possible for a few hours between about 7-12z Tuesday, though
this is not expected to impact any terminals. Winds will
generally be light and variable tonight, shifting south-
southeast and increasing slightly to 5-10kt by midday Tuesday.
Northeast winds currently impacting CLE and ERI will shift
southeast tonight, before returning to the north-northeast at up
to 10 knots mid to late Tuesday afternoon with another lake
breeze anticipated.
Outlook...VFR through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will exit to the northeast tonight but
will continue to influence the local area through Wednesday
night. Light northeast winds this afternoon and evening will
generally trend southerly to southeasterly Tuesday and
Wednesday. A weak cold front will approach Lake Erie from the
north on Thursday before another area of high pressure builds
overhead from the north. These two features will turn winds
northeasterly to northerly Thursday and Friday. Winds during
this time frame will remain between 5 and 10 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...13
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 7:32 PM EDT---------------
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