LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 6:23 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...416
FXUS64 KLIX 281123
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
623 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Upper troughing continued from eastern Canada to Florida this
evening, with ridging along the lee side of the Rockies. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over western Kentucky. The
evening LIX upper air sounding showed an increase in low level
moisture from 24 hours earlier, with precipitable water values just
under 2 inches, as compared to 1.7 inches last night. Evening dew
points were generally in the lower and middle 70s, which wasn't much
different than last night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
developed during the late afternoon hours from the Pearl River Basin
westward, but mostly dissipated shortly after sunset.
Shortwave energy is expected to move down the east side of the ridge
toward the base of the trough over the next 18-24 hours, with
another shortwave on Friday. By Friday afternoon, precipitable
water values will have increased to about 2.1 inches. Areal
coverage of convection today will be greatest from the Pearl
River Basin westward, but probably not much more than 30-40
percent at any one time. With deeper moisture available, Friday
will see significantly better areal coverage, with scattered to
numerous showers/storms. Locally heavy rainfall could be a concern
by Friday afternoon, but coming out of about 5 days of drier
weather, most areas should be able to tolerate an inch or two of
rain, as long as it doesn't occur in 30 minutes.
Forecast soundings would justify high temperatures a degree or two
higher than yesterday, but clouds, precipitation and an
approaching frontal boundary on Friday are likely to hold high
temperatures in the 80s for most of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
There will be a continuing threat of showers and thunderstorms
across the area through Saturday for sure, but beyond that point,
the global model solutions begin to diverge. The ECMWF ensemble PoPs
dry things out considerably with the frontal boundary pushing far
enough into the Gulf to justify only isolated convection from Sunday
through the end of the forecast period. The last few runs of the GFS
would indicate the precipitation threat would continue into at least
Monday or Monday night for much of the area, especially south of
Interstate 10 as it doesn't push the frontal boundary nearly as far
south as the ECMWF. The previous forecast package gave credence to
the GFS solution, and the latest NBM numbers aren't much of a change
from that. Considering a clean frontal passage well into the Gulf is
a bit unusual, but not unheard of in late August/early September,
we'll hold with the slower trends. Tuesday and Wednesday should be
mostly dry regardless of the chosen solution.
High temperature forecasts for the weekend will be more dependent on
precipitation than anything else, with the wetter solutions holding
highs in the 80s. By the end of the forecast period, the drier
solutions should mean high temperature near or slightly above
normal. Overnight lows could fall into the 60s for about the
northern half of the area, especially Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Expect mainly VFR conditions. Precipitation potential increases a
bit through the day especially at the northern terminals and used
PROB30 during the afternoon hours to account for it.
Precipitation could linger into the evening hours a little later
than last evening, but probably not much beyond 02-03z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Main marine concern during at least the first half of the forecast
period will be the threat for thunderstorms that could produce
locally higher winds and seas. Forecast confidence is a bit lower by
late in the weekend, with an approaching cold front. The current
wind forecast would indicate generally offshore flow by late Sunday
afternoon for most or all of the waters. If the front makes it well
into the Gulf similar to the ECMWF solution, that might increase
wind speeds enough to justify Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines
by Monday or Tuesday. For now, will hold with the current 10 to 15
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 70 84 69 / 50 60 70 60
BTR 93 75 89 72 / 40 30 70 50
ASD 91 71 87 71 / 20 30 50 50
MSY 93 77 92 77 / 20 20 50 40
GPT 89 72 87 72 / 20 30 40 50
PQL 91 70 86 71 / 20 30 40 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 6:23 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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