IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 7:04 PM EDT117
FXUS63 KIND 032304
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
704 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain expected tonight with general amounts of 0.25" to 0.5".
Isolated higher amounts are likely
- Another round of cooler and drier air this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025
Although likely not a drought buster, scattered to numerous showers
later this evening through tonight will bring an end the long dry
stretch for central Indiana.
This afternoon will remain dry with southwesterly flow and warm air
advection ahead of the front. This ample sunshine will allow for
highs in the low to mid 80s once again. Hi-res guidance continues to
have high clouds increasing over the next several hours with a
scattered to broken deck around 25kft. Steep low level lapse rates
and deep mixing should result in drier air and wind gusts to around
20 mph this afternoon.
The primary focus in the short term will be on the arrival of
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold
front pushes through after 23Z this evening. Initially, showers and
storms will be fairly isolated across the NW, with The bulk of the
showers and thunderstorms are expected to arrive along a surge of
moisture between 01 and 05Z along and south of I-70, with a general
storm motion of to the east. Rain rates within these convective
cells may be heavy at times given elongated saturation vertical
profiles and modest amounts of lift through the column. General rain
amounts of 0.25-0.5" are expected with isolated higher amounts.
Thunderstorms are expected to be isolated and mostly pulsey.
Effective wind shear will likely remain below typical organized
storm thresholds, but a few storms may be able to organize along old
diabatic boundaries. These are the storms to watch closely with
winds gusts to 50mph possible. As the night wares on, diurnal
cooling in the lowest level will limit overall forcing with the bulk
of the forcing attached to the frontal boundary. This should narrow
the overall corridor of convective cells after 05Z, with isolated
light showers surrounding along anafrontal forcing.
A few showers are possible through the morning hours on Thursday as
the front stalls just to the south, but a majority of central
Indiana should remain dry after 12Z.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025
The cold front will be through much of central Indiana by Thursday
afternoon, with afternoon highs capped in the low 70s. Cool air will
continue to usher into central Indiana Thursday evening and night,
with overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s.
Central Indiana is generally expected to remain below normal though
much of the long term, however a weak short wave within the NW flow
will switch the mean flow back towards westerly curtailing the CAA
over the weekend. Showers associated with this shortwave will likely
remain light with limited forcing, but periods of rain Friday night
into Saturday are likely.
Dry and cool weather is expected late this weekend and into early
next week. Aloft, strong ridging is expected over the Rockies while
the deep upper low continues to linger across eastern Canada. This
will result in northwest flow in place over Indiana along with
subsidence that results in a large area of high pressure that will
remain across the northern plains and push into and across Indiana
through Monday. This Canadian high will provide a cool air mass
across the area resulting in highs in the 70s. Some lows on Saturday
and Sunday morning will be in the 40s.
Chances for rain are expected to return on Tuesday as warmer and
more humid air arrives on southerly winds. The previous surface high
will have drifted well east of Indiana at this point, allowing this
warmer southerly flow to develop. Models suggest a weak trough aloft
passing across Indiana while a lower level warm frontal boundary
approaches from the south. Given these ingredients, rain chances
will need to be included.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025
Impacts:
- A period of showers with isolated convection this evening into
early overnight
- MVFR ceilings moving in late evening and persisting some areas
Thursday morning
- Wind shift to NW during the night
Discussion:
A cold front will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the
sites tonight, from northwest to southeast. Based on latest radar
trends and guidance, have slowed the timing a bit in the TAFs. Some
gusty winds are possible in any storm.
Winds will shift to the northwest as the front passes, and ceilings
will drop into the MVFR category. Showers will linger longest in the
south, but rain should be out of the sites by 12Z. MVFR ceilings
will also last the longest at the southern sites, but VFR should
return by 15Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Puma/Updike
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 7:04 PM EDT---------------
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