LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 6:34 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...370
FXUS64 KLIX 262334
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Remaining in the northeast periphery of the upper ridge over
Texas, our area remains under dry northwesterly flow. This along
with rather poor moisture quality has limited rain chances across
the region. A surface front resides just south of the coast, but
convection is still having a difficult time developing despite
subtle isentropic upglide. Going into Wednesday expect the ridge
to pull west a bit over central Texas and a surface high to move
eastward from the MS/Ohio River Valleys toward the southern and
mid Appalachians. This will help transition winds to an easterly
direction and with slightly lower heights/thicknesses, expect
temperatures to be just a skosh cooler generally around average
for this time of year. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
The long term begins with the dry northwest flow continuing over
our region. An impulse across the Ozarks and surface front will
move southeast toward our region by Friday. The front is expected
to move southward and stall over or just south of our region
Saturday and into Sunday. This will enhance diurnally driven POPs
for the region. From this point the globals diverge a bit going
into late weekend and early next week. The ECMWF brings the front
all the way through the region and even takes it as far south of
the central Gulf. However, the GFS is much slower and keeps the
front around here longer with a strong QPF signal lingering. ECM
completely dries out the region...so needless to say lower
confidence with Day 6 and 7 POPs. That said, temperatures will be
held down during the daytime this weekend due to higher POPs.
(Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds
and no significant ceilings. Isolated showers and storms are
forecast Wednesday afternoon, with HUM and BTR being the most
likely sites to be impacted. However, probability is too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Light to moderate winds and seas are expected as a front settles
across the local waters through midweek. Cautionary headlines may
be needed. Eventually, high pressure will build southward, which
will lighten winds and lower seas. However, rain chances go back
up this weekend as a front stalls out over the region allowing for
an enhancement to nocturnal marine convection. Expected locally
higher winds and seas around convection. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 20
BTR 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 0 20
ASD 69 90 68 91 / 0 10 0 10
MSY 77 92 76 93 / 0 20 0 10
GPT 70 89 70 90 / 0 10 0 10
PQL 67 90 67 91 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 6:34 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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