IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 5:45 AM EDT371
FXUS63 KIWX 270945
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
545 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather today gives way to a chance (30-70%) of showers
starting early Thursday morning.
- Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend, approaching
80 degrees by Labor Day.
- Breezy northwest wind Thursday will result in dangerous waves
at Lake Michigan beaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
High pressure today centered over Illinois provides crisp morning
lows well into the 40s followed by pleasant afternoon. Rain chances
increase from northwest to southeast starting early Thursday
morning.
A stout 50 knot 500-mb jet rotates through Michigan on Thursday
followed by trailing cold front. A strengthening 850-mb low-
level jet Thursday morning is what guidance appears to be
keying on for a blossoming rain shield at that time. Moisture
transport is still somewhat lackluster as Pacific moisture makes
a meandering journey atop a West Coast ridge. Pair this with
today's expansive high pressure and the result is a dry subcloud
layer Thursday morning per soundings and time- height cross
sections. Thus, I do think guidance might be bringing in the
rain a touch fast. Though, the strengthening wind fields aloft
appear to promise a relatively swift battle over the dry
airmass. Rain amounts will be light, especially along and south
of US 30, with up to 0.20" possible in south- central MI while
those south of US 30 will see well less than 0.10". Thunder is
possible as well with skinny CAPE profiles noted plus ample
upper-level forcing. Drying out by Thursday night.
High pressure returns Friday resulting in another dose of fall-like
temperatures and perhaps some lake effect cloudiness to start
the day. Shallow equilibrium levels look to limit the rain
chance. Fry through the weekend with temperatures gradually
warming toward 80 degrees on Labor Day as high pressure shifts
east.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
Dry/stable low levels will ensure VFR conditions through the
period. A cold front will cross the area Thursday morning but
ceilings are not expected to drop below 5 kft prior to 12Z.
Showers are possible at KSBN just prior to 12Z but the best
chances are just after.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 5:45 AM EDT---------------
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