IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 5:24 AM EDT330
FXUS63 KIWX 260924
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
524 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 20-30% chance of lake effect rain shower today.
- Dangerous waves and rip currents continue today at Berrien
and La Porte County beaches.
- Another dose of cool air arrives with a 30-60% chance of
showers Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Broad, cyclonic flow continues from an upper-level low over James
Bay. Look for additional lake effect showers this morning
through midday. A compact upper-level vort max is digging
southeast through central Lake Michigan this morning. This
forcing ought to enhance lake effect rain showers through the
next several hours. Ample equilibrium levels and steep low-
level lapse rates remain in play though cold air advection is
weakening as flow becomes parallel to the 850-mb isotherms. This
weakened CAA also allowed me to bump temperatures slightly when
compared to Monday. We'll remain below normal, but highs in the
70s were common along the US-24 corridor and ought to be more
common this afternoon. Lake effect shuts off by this evening has
high pressure noses in briefly from the Central Plains.
High pressure Wednesday is displaced Thursday as another cold front
drops in from the Canadian Prairie. The greatest moisture
convergence if over the eastern Great Lakes which decreases the local
forecast confidence for the coverage of showers with this front.
Nonetheless, there is a 30-60% chance of showers starting midday
Thursday, with the greatest POPs along the Michigan stateline.
Behind the front, another dose of fall temperatures through at least
Saturday before heights rise and warm air advection resumes. The
next weather system arrives near midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
No changes needed for the 12 TAFs as the forecast remains on
track. Lake effect showers persist early this morning downwind
of Lake Michigan as low level moisture increases. KSBN has
stayed dry this morning with most of the shower activity passing
north of the airport, although a few showers in the vicinity are
still possible this morning. As northwest winds increase after
daybreak and lake effect showers push inland later today, KFWA
could get a shower or two after 18Z but have opted to keep the
TAFs dry for now. Skies will vary between SCT to BKN with VFR
ceilings expected throughout the day (except under any heavier
showers). Winds will be coming from the WNW/NW today with gusts
up to 20 kts at KSBN later this afternoon before subsiding after
00Z tonight. Overnight into Wednesday will be dry.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 5:24 AM EDT---------------
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