IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 2:59 AM EDT580
FXUS63 KIND 270659
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures, low humidity, and mostly dry weather
persist for at least the next week
- Isolated to scattered showers possible Thursday with a passing
cold front, mainly across north-central Indiana
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
Surface high pressure resides over central Indiana this morning with
clear skies and light winds. Ideal radiational cooling conditions
will allow for near-record low temperatures this morning, with
readings into the upper 40s expected. Like previous nights, patchy
fog is possible in typically fog-prone locations such as near rivers
and in rural/agricultural areas.
Any fog will diminish quickly after sunrise, leaving us with a brief
period of clear skies before diurnal cumulus develops. Additionally,
a vort max upstream will bring in some mid to high level clouds
during the afternoon hours. Clouds associated with this feature
should continue to increase into the night tonight. Despite the cool
start and increase in cloud cover, temperatures should rebound
nicely into the mid 70s.
As clouds continue to thicken tonight, guidance suggests that enough
forcing from the vort max may be present for a few scattered
showers, mainly across our northern counties. Shower activity may
remain into the day Thursday as a cold front approaches from the
north. Cloud cover will limit radiational cooling leading to lows in
the mid to upper 50s by Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
Deep troughing currently exists over the Midwest and northeastern
US, with ensemble guidance showing troughing persisting through much
of the forecast period. Despite troughing overhead, generally dry
conditions are expected beginning Friday as the jet stream is
relatively quiet with no significant embedded disturbances.
Our only feature of interest is a cold front arriving on Thursday
which may bring some scattered showers or thunderstorms. Model
soundings show relatively weak to modest lapse rates and only a few
hundred J/Kg CAPE which should limit storm intensity.
Once Thursday's cold front passes, a dry continental polar air mass
will slide southward along with surface high pressure. Pleasant
weather ensues with clear skies, warm days and cool overnights.
Despite the relatively dry air mass, morning fog is still possible
due to evaporation from local rivers and corn fields.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
Impacts:
- Patchy fog possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning near
LAF/HUF/BMG
Discussion:
Lingering mid-level cloud cover remains over parts of central
Indiana, mainly at IND as of 05z Wed. These clouds should dissipate
with time leaving much of the region mainly clear through sunrise.
Clear skies and light winds should allow for the development of
patchy fog by morning. LAF, HUF, and BMG are the most likely places
to see fog formation. The fog should be fairly shallow and
visibility could ebb and flow and vary over short periods of time.
Any fog will diminish shortly after sunrise, leaving central Indiana
with a brief period of clear skies before diurnal cumulus quickly
develops. Some high cirrus should also become apparent during the
afternoon as an upstream disturbance approaches.
Unlike previous nights, clouds look to increase after sunset due to
the aforementioned disturbance. Generally VFR ceilings are expected,
at least through the end of the TAF period. Guidance suggests
lowering ceilings and some rain showers are possible after 12z
Thursday.
Winds should remain light with a northwesterly component gradually
becoming southwesterly before settling on a more southerly direction
by Thursday morning.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 2:59 AM EDT---------------
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