PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 11:47 PM CDT039
FXUS63 KPAH 270447 AAA
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will remain below normal with low humidity
through the holiday weekend.
- Scattered showers are possible on Thursday mainly across
portions of southeast Missouri.
- Dry conditions are expected for the Labor Day weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Sfc high pressure over Iowa will build over the FA tonight before
moving east into the Mid Atlantic region Wednesday night. Deep layer
mixing to 775 to 750 mb this afternoon combined with robust
radiational cooling tonight will support low temperatures falling
into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Leaned closer to the NBM 10th
percentile by bumping CONSMOS down a few degrees as model guidance
bias correction is likely too warm given the time of year. Would
not be surprised to see a few locations locally reach the low 40s
as it seems unlikely low temperatures Wednesday morning would end
up being warmer compared to this morning. Patchy fog will also be
possible, mainly in the vicinity of rivers and lakes where the
warmer waters will make it more likely to exceed the crossover
temperature.
Late Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper level trough will dig
down across the Great Lakes region. A leading 500 mb shortwave over
Arkansas will support scattered showers brushing SEMO; however,
model guidance still indicates some uncertainty on how far north
more impactful rainfall will reach. The general consensus is for
heavier showers and storms to be confined to northern and central
Arkansas where the better frontogenesis, isentropic lift, and
moisture will be present. However, the ECMWF remains the most north
and supports higher QPF clipping Carter, Ripley and Butler counties
in SEMO. While the deterministic GFS/CMC have very little pcpn
progged, model ensembles including the GEFS has actually trended
closer to the ECMWF on the latest 12z run. Despite the uncertainty,
would lean towards scattered rain showers being probable, but not
confident yet on the potential for heavier rainfall as the better
thermodynamics and kinematics remain south.
In the wake of a backdoor front on Friday, below normal high
temperatures begin to moderate into the lower 80s from the upper
70s, but will still be running about 5 degrees below normal with
lows in the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures turn slightly cooler
Saturday before rebounding into the mid 80s by Monday. Dry air
advection with high pressure in control over the Great Lakes region
should suppress rain chances south of the FA as the NBM still
remains dry through the Labor Day weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Ground fog is the primary potential flight impediment tonight.
For the most part moisture profiles look to be too dry aloft in
the lower levels for significant/deep fog formation but near
water sources or in lower lying areas some ground fog still
appears possible.
VFR conditions with light winds are then expected through the
day on Wednesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 11:47 PM CDT---------------
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