LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 2:59 PM EDT733
FXUS63 KLMK 281859
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather with below normal temperatures will continue into the
Labor Day weekend. There is a very low (<10%) chance for a shower
Friday afternoon.
* Isolated to scattered daytime shower/storm chances will return
across southern KY for Labor Day, and then all other locations
through mid to late week. Significant rainfall amounts appear
unlikely at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Things are quiet across the region at this hour, although a few
notable weather features worth mentioning. Mostly sunny skies reside
over much of the CWA, however a pronounced mid level cloud deck
associated with a shortwave is rotating through the northern third
of our CWA through this afternoon and evening. Light returns on
radar are mostly virga, however a few sprinkles and/or a very light
shower cannot be ruled out along a line from Madison, IN down
through Carlisle, KY. T/Td spreads are ranging around 30-35 F over
much of the CWA, but is only around 20-25F along that far NE sliver
of the CWA. Given that upstream obs over IN have shown some observed
light rain, will go ahead an put a very small chance up in that
narrow NE CWA corridor.
Skies should trend mostly clear tonight, although will likely hang
onto a few clouds. Could see some patchy fog mostly in river valleys
toward dawn. A cool front sinks into our area by tomorrow morning,
and then slowly slides southward through the day. Overall moisture
is limited, however it does appear that there could be just enough
convergence along the front, combined with a bit of moisture pooling
to allow for a stray shower or two across central KY in the
afternoon. Will keep "silent" pops going, but overall wouldn't
expect much more than a sprinkle or very light brief shower if you
do happen to see some precipitation. Expecting a notable temp
gradient as well with the frontal boundary sliding southward through
the day. Looking for mid to upper 80s across south central KY,
tapering to the upper 70s to around 80 across our southern IN zones.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Labor Day Weekend...
Cool front is south of our area as we head into the holiday weekend,
with surface high pressure building and maintaining over the Great
Lakes region. This will keep a cool (below normal temps) and dry
forecast going with highs generally in the upper 70s and low 80s
each day, along with chilly mornings mostly in the 50s. Overall,
looks to be a fantastic weekend, although things are starting to get
a bit too dry. D0 drought has been introduced for almost all of the
CWA.
Do like the isolated to widely scattered (20%-30%) pop mention for
Monday afternoon across the southern third of the CWA thanks to the
inverted surface trough mentioned in the previous discussion. No
changes planned there.
Tuesday - Thursday...
Overall troughiness will hang over the eastern CONUS by early next
week with continued below normal temps, and increasing precipitation
chances. Tuesday will feature isolated to scattered shower or storm
chances for all of the area, however the best chances of more
widespread rainfall look to arrive either Tuesday or Wednesday ahead
of a deep and anomalous closed over the Great Lakes. This feature
doesn't appear to have the best deep moisture return ahead of it
given the positive tilt nature as it digs, but overall looks like a
pretty decent signal for fairly widespread precipitation in that Wed-
Thur timeframe. For context, the LREF probability of greater than a
half an inch of rainfall ranges from 40-60% across our area for the
mid to late week range. Probabilities for over 1" of rainfall in
that same time period drop off to 15-30% chances. Overall, the best
chances for the highest amounts will be across our SE CWA, with the
lowest amounts expected across our NW CWA at this time. With those
numbers in mind, it seems we might be hanging onto drought
conditions for at least a little while as those amounts would only
maintain ongoing conditions, or possibly worsen drought a bit given
another 4-5 days of dry before we get that rain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
VFR conditions prevail through this forecast cycle, although we will
have some mid level clouds skirting across the northern TAF sites
(HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA) this afternoon and evening. Could see some virga
or brief sprinkles out of that deck, but not enough to measure or
mention. Otherwise, look for a mostly clear and quiet night with
calm or light and variable winds. Did mention a brief vis reduction
in shallow fog at HNB based on persistence from previous days.
Steady NW wind takes hold by late morning tomorrow behind a dry cool
front. Look for Sct-Bkn high based cumulus clouds.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 2:59 PM EDT---------------
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