CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 3:34 PM EDT094
FXUS61 KCLE 281934
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across the local area through Friday
morning. High pressure builds across the Great Lakes region on
Friday and will persist through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will sag south across the local area through early
Friday morning. Ongoing scattered showers will continue to
spread east across the region through this evening with isolated
thunderstorms possible across Northwest Ohio and along the Lake
Erie lakeshore through tonight. Some gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall may accompany any stronger storm. Rainfall
amounts will generally range between 0.25-0.50" with isolated
amounts 0.75" to 1.00" possible along the lakeshore in Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Overnight lows tonight will
settle in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Some lake effect rain showers will likely linger across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania early Friday morning with cloud
cover persisting into the afternoon. High pressure will build over
the Great Lakes region during the day on Friday allowing for any
remaining showers and cloud cover to gradually dissipate. Cooler
behind the front on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 60s and
overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure becomes established over the Great Lakes
region while an upper level low lingers over the Northeast. Some
surface troughing may persist across the eastern Great Lakes on
Saturday but the local area will remain dry through the short term
period. Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend with
high temperatures on Saturday in the low 70s increasing slightly
into the mid 70s by Sunday. Overnight lows each night will drop into
the mid 40s to low 50s. Low temperatures may dip into the lower 40s
across extreme eastern portions of Erie and Crawford Counties in
Pennsylvania.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds east towards the Mid-Atlantic
region through Tuesday. Southerly return flow will allow for
high temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees
through Wednesday. Precipitation chances return mid-week as a
low pressure system approaches the region from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Moisture is increasing across the area today ahead of a cold
front that extends from southern Quebec to lower Michigan at
18Z. Showers are expanding east across north central Ohio ahead
of the front. Ceilings ahead of the rain remain VFR but some
locations within the showers are dropping to MVFR. An expansion
of MVFR ceilings is expected with the front which is expected
to push south across the area between 21-06Z. This brings a
chance of thunderstorms to TOL, CLE, and ERI with another round
of showers and lower potential for thunderstorms elsewhere. Any
thunderstorm could bring brief IFR visibilities. While clouds
may briefly scatter out behind the front, the expectation is for
mostly cloudy to overcast skies to fill in overnight with
increasing lake enhanced cloud cover. MVFR to VFR clouds are
expected to continue through at least 18Z, then slowly starting
to scatter out from west to east as high pressure builds in from
the Central Great Lakes.
Winds are generally west to southwest ahead of the front at
8-12 knots with some sites gusting to 20 knots. A wind shift to
the northwest and then north will occur behind the front with
north winds at 10 knots or less.
Outlook...Non-VFR may linger tonight through Friday in lake
effect clouds. Otherwise, mainly VFR is expected Saturday
through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories and a high swim risk remain in effect through
4 AM for areas east of the Lake Erie Islands. Southwest winds have
increased to 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots on Lake Erie. A cold
front extends from Quebec to southern lower Michigan and will push
south across the lake through 10 PM. Convergence along the front
will support both thunderstorms and waterspouts this evening. In
addition, waves are forecast to build to 4 to 7 feet before winds
shift to the north and decrease into the 10-20 knot range overnight.
Conditions will remain somewhat choppy into Friday with northwest
winds of 10-15 knots and waves of 1-3 feet. High pressure will build
over the region through the weekend with marine conditions
improving. A chance of waterspouts will linger Friday afternoon and
evening ahead of the building high.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ010>012-
089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 3:34 PM EDT---------------
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