PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 2:38 AM CDT637
FXUS63 KPAH 250738
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
238 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures will remain this week. Highs will
range from the middle 70s to lower 80s with lows falling into
the 50s (even upper 40s in a few locations).
- Much of the week will be dry, but chances of rain may return
to portions of the region later in the week. However, there
remains fairly high uncertainty, and only a some portion of
the region may actually see any rain through the entire week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
High pressure at the surface extends from the Northern Plains
south into the Tennessee Valley this morning. This is providing
mostly clear skies and nearly calm wind. The upper level
pattern this week will continue to feature troughing across the
eastern CONUS placing the region within northwest flow. High
pressure at the surface will build further into region centering
directly overhead the area by midweek. High temperatures
struggle to reach 80 in many areas through Thursday with
overnight lows well into the 50s (possibly some upper 40s even).
The coldest night may end up being Tuesday night with the
surface high overhead. Deep mixing of the drier air aloft should
allow dewpoints to fall into the mid 40s on Wednesday, which
are near record values for late August. Record low temperatures
are in jeopardy a couple of days as well, particularly Wednesday
morning.
A few disturbances will pass through the region this week. The
first one moves through today into tonight. Given the dry
troposphere and building high pressure, it seems unlikely much
of the precip shield will be able to work its way into the
region. A few light showers may work their way into southeast
Missouri today, near the AR/MO state line. Another disturbance
moves through Wednesday night into Thursday. There is still a
lot of model spread with this system but it appears there is a
better chance that the precip shield will make its way into
portions of the area, mainly southeast Missouri. Model spread
grows even further for the weekend. The GFS in particular is
still the wetter solution with increased troughing to the west
while the EC and CMC keep us mostly dry through the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to moderate back to near normal for
late in the week and weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
5-6K FT AGL FEW-SCT bases should disperse with loss of fuel,
leaving moclear evening skies before time/height cross sections
show the satellite depicted mid-high level clouds just upstream
moving in later tonight-tmrw...affecting mainly KCGI-KPAH.
TDD's should stay up enough to preclude widespread fog tonight,
though isolated patches in prone locales cannot be completely
ruled out.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...Previous Fcter
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 2:38 AM CDT---------------
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