JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 2:49 PM EDT352
FXUS63 KJKL 251849
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
249 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area
tonight will last through the upcoming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
Mid-level clouds currently occupy the skies across Eastern Kentucky,
as cooler, drier air continues to work into the area from the
northwest. At current, dew points have begun dropping into the upper
40s to low 50s across the state. In Eastern Kentucky, a dew point of
49 was observed at Big-Sandy Airport, 46 at Somerset, 45 at Jackson
and London, and 43 at Morehead. Ridge-Valley splits in low
temperatures are expected this evening, with higher elevated thermal
belt ridge locations likely dropping into the low 50s, and valley
locations dropping into the mid to upper 40s. Coldest locations may
flirt with lower 40s. River valley fog is expected to develop this
evening, though most favorable across extreme Eastern Kentucky,
toward the WV boarder.
Tuesday, an upper-level trough is modeled over Southern Quebec, with
a trough axis extending south and west into the Upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. Northwest winds will usher in cooler air through
the day, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Later Tuesday, the
trough axis is modeled to have moved east of the state, leading to
rising heights as an approaching high pressure from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley moves closer to Eastern Kentucky. Light winds and
clearing skies will once again create a favorable set up for valley
fog and ridge-valley temperature spits. With high pressure closer to
the area lighter surface winds are anticipated, a main difference
from Monday night. Overnight lows in the lower 50s along ridges,
and mid to upper 40s in valleys are anticipated. Coldest locations
will likely see lower 40s. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees
below normal, with some locations approaching or breaking record
lows.
We're entering the time of year where dew points play a huge role in
the forecast, where the NBM has shown repeated instances of
struggling with dew point drop offs during the afternoon hours.
Surrounding offices in coordination with ours at JKL have adjusted
afternoon dewpoints towards the 10th percentile of the NBM or lower.
Across Eastern Kentucky, such edits were made over the next
several days using a blend of the latest raw model guidance, some
of which was more aggressive/lower than the NBM's 5th percentile.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
A surface high-pressure system will remain dominant at the start of
the forecast period. Temperatures will continue to run below average
but will gradually begin to return to warmer values by Thursday. As
the high shifts to the east, flow around it will introduce warmer
south-to-southwesterly flow. Temperatures will climb from the mid-
70s to the upper 70s and low 80s as this southerly flow is
established. Increasing moisture is also expected as the flow shifts
to the south.
Model guidance continues to hint at a couple of possible
disturbances for late this week and into the weekend. The GFS has
come into better agreement with the ECMWF, with both solutions
showing a shortwave tracking through southern Canada. This solution
would drag a cold front through the Great Lakes, bringing possible
PoP to the Ohio Valley. A second shortwave is also shown moving
across the Central Plains toward the Tennessee Valley. This one is
forecast to clip the southern portions of the CWA, bringing
precipitation chances late Thursday night into Friday. Once these
systems pass, surface high pressure will build back into the region
for the weekend, although long-term models hint at another system
for Sunday.
The period will be marked by fall-like weather building into the
region and remaining entrenched through at least midweek. Dry
weather and below-average temperatures will persist through midweek
before temperatures begin to climb back toward the end of the
forecast period. A passing shortwave may bring increasing
precipitation chances for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at all
terminals with the exception of KSME, which may briefly fall into
MVFR vis reductions due to valley fog developing after 08Z
tonight. While the potential for fog is greatest in the far
southeast of KY, model soundings suggest that near surface winds
will remain just elevated enough to likely mitigate fog
development at most TAF sites, especially with those elevated
outside of valley locations. Winds this afternoon may occasionally
gust near 15 knots, but should taper off to light and variable by
00Z Tuesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 2:49 PM EDT---------------
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