CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 3:56 PM EDT953
FXUS61 KCLE 251956
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
356 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure trough persists over and near Lake Erie, including
our area, through Tuesday. During Tuesday night through most of
Thursday, a ridge will affect our region as the parent high
pressure center moves from the Upper Midwest toward Atlantic
waters near the Delmarva Peninsula. On Thursday evening through
Thursday night, a cold front should sweep generally southeastward
through our region. Behind the front, a high pressure ridge should
build from the northern Great Lakes and vicinity through this
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley
through Tuesday night as a deep longwave trough aloft,
associated with an unusually-cold air mass, lingers over
eastern Canada and much of the eastern United States. At the
surface, a lake-aggregate trough persists over the eastern
Great Lakes and vicinity, including our CWA, through Tuesday.
During Tuesday night, a ridge should begin to nose into our
region as the parent high pressure center moves from the Upper
Midwest toward the Lower OH Valley. Overnight lows are expected
to reach mainly the mid 40's to mid 50's around daybreak
Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning amidst variable cloud
cover. In between, Tuesday's late afternoon highs are expected
to reach only the mid 60's to lower 70's amidst intervals of
sunshine.
A sufficiently-cold/moist WNW'erly mean low-level flow over
and downwind of ~24C Lake Erie will direct periodic lake-effect
rain showers, heavy at times, across the primary snowbelt of NW
PA and NE OH and vicinity through this late evening. Occasional
lake-effect thunderstorms are possible as greater/deeper low-
level moisture contributes to greater lake-induced CAPE,
including within the primary electrical charge separation zone.
Overnight tonight through Tuesday night, lake-effect rain
showers, steady to heavy at times, should stream generally
SE'ward from Lake Erie across NW PA, NE OH, and vicinity as the
mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air veers to
NW'erly and lake-induced instability remains sufficient.
However, lake-induced CAPE is expected to decrease gradually via
low-level dry air advection and the eventual development and
strengthening of a subsidence inversion that will accompany the
aforementioned surface ridge. Elsewhere, primarily fair weather
is expected. However, the E'ward passages of shortwave
troughs/attendant surface trough axes and weak diurnal
destabilization of a fairly moist boundary layer are expected to
promote the development of isolated to scattered rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms through this early evening and again
Tuesday afternoon through early evening.
On Wednesday, primarily fair weather is expected as a shortwave
ridge aloft builds from the western Great Lakes as the
aforementioned longwave trough exits E'ward, the aforementioned
surface ridge continues to build into our CWA, and the parent
surface high pressure center drifts from the Lower to Mid OH
Valley. Lingering lake-effect rain showers streaming generally
SE'ward over/downwind of Lake Erie are expected to end by about
midday as lake-induced CAPE wanes due, in part to continued
lowering of the aforementioned, stabilizing subsidence inversion.
Intervals of sunshine and the development of weak net low-level
WAA are expected to allow late afternoon highs to reach the
upper 60's to lower 70's in NW PA and the upper 60's to mid 70's
in northern OH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
During this time period, flow aloft becomes cyclonic and shifts
from W'erly to NW'erly as the aforementioned shortwave ridge
exits generally E'ward and a potent shortwave trough moves
SE'ward from northern ON and near James Bay to the eastern Great
Lakes and vicinity. At the surface, the first ridge exits
generally E'ward before a cold front sweeps generally SE'ward
through our region Thursday evening through Thursday night.
Behind the front, another ridge should build from the northern
Great Lakes and vicinity. Lows should reach mainly the mid 40's
to mid 50's around daybreak Thursday morning and Friday morning.
In between, Thursday's afternoon highs should reach mainly the
lower 70's as peeks of sunshine and net low-level WAA precede
the cold front.
Current odds favor fair weather Wednesday night as the above-
mentioned ridge exits generally E'ward. On Thursday through the
first few predawn hours of Friday morning, scattered rain
showers are expected along and ahead of the aforementioned cold
front as low-level convergence/moist ascent along the front and
any downshear outflow boundaries release at least weak potential
instability in the lowest 1 km AGL. Thunderstorms are possible
late Thursday morning through early evening as the same lifting
mechanisms release weak to perhaps moderate boundary layer CAPE
(stemming from diurnal warming of a somewhat moist boundary
layer over land and ~24C Lake Erie evaporating easily into
overlying air) amidst modest deep-layer bulk shear. Behind the
cold front, isolated to scattered light to perhaps moderate
lake-effect rain showers should develop and stream generally
S'ward from Lake Erie as a sufficiently-cold and modestly-moist
N'erly mean low-level flow becomes established over and downwind
of the lake.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current odds favor mainly fair weather during this period as a
weak ridge aloft should build from the west and the
aforementioned shortwave trough exits E'ward. At the surface,
the aforementioned ridge should continue to affect our region as
the parent high pressure center moves from the northern and
central Great Lakes to Atlantic waters near the Canadian
Maritimes. Lingering lake-effect rain showers over and generally
south of Lake Erie should end by daybreak Saturday as weak
lake-induced CAPE wanes via low-level dry air advection and
lowering of a stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanying the
ridge. The projected weather pattern evolution at the surface
and aloft, resulting gradual moderation in 850 mb temperatures,
and intervals of sunshine should allow late afternoon highs in
the mid 60's to lower 70's on Friday to moderate to the lower to
mid 70's by this upcoming Monday. Overnight lows in mainly the
mid 40's to mid 50's around daybreak Saturday and Sunday
mornings should be followed by lows mainly in the 50's around
daybreak Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Generally VFR across terminals with some patchy MVFR in lake
effect rain showers downwind of Lake Erie this afternoon.
Chances for rain showers, mainly across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania, will continue through tonight. Have some
MVFR TEMPO groups across some terminals (KCLE/KYNG/KERI) where
highest confidence in MVFR potential exists. Rain showers should
scatter out overnight tonight before returning again late
Tuesday morning.
Northeasterly winds 8-12 knots sustained with occasional
isolated gusts 15-20 knots will remain in place through
00Z/Tue. Winds turn westerly while diminishing to 5 knots or
less tonight before returning northwesterly at 8-12 knots late
Tuesday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered lake effect rain showers
through Wednesday, primarily downwind of Lake Erie east of CLE.
Non-VFR possible in rain showers on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Elevated northwesterly to westerly winds 15 to 20 knots will persist
through Tuesday afternoon. This will allow for wave heights in
nearshore zones in central and eastern basins to remain between 3
and 5 feet. Will extend the end time on the marine headlines (Small
Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement) through Tuesday
afternoon. Marine conditions will gradually improve Tuesday evening
into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region.
Southwesterly winds are expected to increase to 15-20 knots Thursday
into Friday as a cold front pushes south across the lake.
In addition to the rough marine conditions, waterspouts will remain
possible in lake effect clouds and showers into Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Some sites may tie or break their daily record cold low
temperatures Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning as an
unusually-cold air mass affects our region.
Previous Daily Record Cold Minimum Temperatures...
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
08-26 45(1964) 38(1958) 47(1958) 41(1914) 40(1897) 47(1958)
08-27 48(1969) 36(1946) 49(1963) 44(1914) 43(1969) 47(1954)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 3:56 PM EDT---------------
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