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717 FXUS64 KLIX 211754AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1254 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025An approaching trough will linger over the area tonight throughSaturday morning. Southerly surface winds will help to advect moist air into the area. This pattern combined with deep Gulf moisture will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. PWs will be around 2 inches, which will be aroundthe 75-90th percentiles for SPC sounding climatology. Rainfallrates will be fairly efficient with any storm development. Generally,these storms will occur during the afternoon and early evening peak heating hours tonight and Friday. The main risk with these storms will be gusty subsevere winds (40-50mph) and locally heavyrainfall. Localized street flooding could be an issue, as well,especially if a storm sets up or stalls over an urban area. Temperatures will be generally in the low 90s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. MSW&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday night)Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025The trough will slide south into the Gulf over the weekend. Rain chances will remain during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday as the system moves slowly southward. Conditions will likely be a little drier on Sunday. The mainconcerns with these storms will be subsevere gusty winds(30-50mph) and locally heavy rainfall. Another cold front moves through the area Monday into Tuesday,helping to reinforce some cooler feeling temperatures. Generally,rain chances will be increased Monday afternoon and evening andTuesday afternoon and evening. These storms will likely be laterinitiation, later into the evening, due to the more northerly flowpattern that will set up over the area. Generally, temperaturesMonday through Wednesday will be in the low 90s with dewpoints inthe low 70s and upper 60s across the area. Conditions start to dry out a little Wednesday and especiallytoward the end of next week. Still a lot of uncertainty, butgenerally expecting a drier pattern to start setting up from mid-week onward. MSW&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. TEMPO groups are ineffect, which will include drops to MVFR conditions, for afternoonand evening showers and storms at most area airports. MSW&&.MARINE...Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025Outside of showers and thunderstorms mostly favorable winds and seasare expected through the upcoming weekend. Winds will remain mostlyonshore at or less than 10 knots. Winds and sea will increase in andaround convection.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 72 90 71 92 / 30 60 20 40 BTR 73 91 73 92 / 40 70 20 40 ASD 72 90 71 91 / 50 70 40 70 MSY 78 93 77 92 / 40 80 40 70 GPT 74 90 74 89 / 50 70 40 70 PQL 73 90 72 90 / 40 70 50 70 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...MSWLONG TERM....MSWAVIATION...MSWMARINE...MSW
