LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 9:58 AM EDT106
FXUS63 KLMK 221358
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
958 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry with near seasonal temperatures for today through Saturday.
* Frontal boundary to pass through the region Saturday night and
Sunday with some showers/storms possible.
* Below normal temperatures expected for much of next week leading
up to Labor Day. Some overnight lows in the upper 40s will be
possible by the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Morning sounding out of ILN shows a very stout inversion just above
850 hPa with moisture trapped underneath. Satellite imagery
confirms this with another morning of widespread stratus and
stratocumulus across much of central and eastern KY. Some clearing
was noted from the Pennyrile region and points west. Temperatures
were in the upper 60s under the clouds but in the lower 70s where
the sun had peeked out.
Latest guidance suggests that we'll see cloud bases continue to lift
this morning with skies scouring out. The models are likely too
fast once again, so we think that much of the morning will remain
cloudy with some improvement in the mid-late afternoon. With this
much cloud cover and it taking time to mix out, high temps today
area likely a bit too high, so will be trimming those back a bit in
this forecast update.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Looking aloft, ridging is centered over the desert southwest and
extends into the Midwest this morning. Over southern Canada, an
impressive low pressure system moves east towards the Great Lakes.
Through the day, this low pressure system will work to weaken the
ridging and force it southward into the lower Ohio Valley. This will
help to increase heights some over the region. Broad surface high
pressure will begin to shift south over the lower Ohio Valley and
keep winds light and mostly out of the northeast.
Wind protected valley areas are seeing some fog development,
which will burn off within an hour or two of sunrise.
Similar to yesterday, there is moisture trapped within the 925-850mb
layer, which has led to low stratus continuation over southern
Indiana and new development over the Bluegrass this morning. Through
the morning, these clouds will mix out revealing party cloudy skies
in the afternoon. For this reason, have lowered high temperatures in
these areas to the low to mid 80s. Central and southern Kentucky
will remain mostly sunny today with uninhibited heating bringing
high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight, ridging will begin to retreat back to the west as
troughing associated with the Canadian low pushes southeast. Skies
look to remain mostly clear through the night, though there is a
signal for some patchy low stratus in the early morning. Within the
river valley and rural areas, will likely see some patchy fog
development. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Saturday - Saturday Night...
The aforementioned Canadian low pressure system will continue to
move into the Great Lakes region, sending a cold front southeastward
through the Ohio Valley Saturday evening through Saturday night.
Saturday morning, we will see a brief return of southwesterly flow
over the southern half of the region. This will bring some limited
moisture into the region, and coupled with high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s, and the approaching cold front, we could see some
scattered showers and storms. Not expecting severe weather, though a
stronger updraft couldn't be ruled out in our far southeast given
SBCAPE around 1200-1600 J/kg.
Sunday - Mid Next Week...
The front will exit the region by Sunday morning bringing showers
and storms with it. Surface high pressure will build in behind the
front helping to keep conditions dry. Upper troughing will continue
to spin over southern Canada and the Great Lakes and extend
southward into the Ohio Valley. A shortwave riding along the broader
troughing on Monday will help to bring in the much cooler
temperatures. Expecting to see high temperatures in the mid to upper
70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. Stronger high pressure will push
into the region, helping to keep conditions dry and skies mostly
sunny. Early through mid next week looks to be very comfortable and
a nice glimpse of fall.
End of next week...
Broader troughing will begin to push east of the region, which will
lead to warming temperatures each day. Though we are expected to
stay slightly below normal through the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
Low stratus has spread over LEX/RGA and intermittent at HNB/SDF.
These conditions will continue through the mid morning hours before
this clouds deck begins to lift and thin. The remainder of the day
will feature light northeasterly winds and an afternoon Cu field. In
the evening, skies will clear and winds will become calm. Fog
development is possible in the early morning hours on Saturday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM....SRW
AVIATION.....SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 9:58 AM EDT---------------
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