PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 12:20 PM CDT097
FXUS63 KPAH 151720
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Prolonged duration heat and humidity builds and builds thru
the weekend into early next week. As temperatures soar thru
the 90s, with lingering high humidity, heat indices approach
or exceed the triple digits daily.
- The passage of a cold front Wednesday will finally end the
prolonged duration heat as temperatures fall back toward
normal levels and daily storm chances return.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Strong high pressure aloft will build and center over the area
thru the weekend into early next week. This will peak
temperatures in the middle, perhaps even upper 90s, and even if
dew points mix down a little daily, it'll still result in heat
indices approaching or exceeding the triple digits. Heat
headlines seem to come into play as this peak occurs, esp
Sunday-Monday, but adjacent days it may be in play as
well...will let ongoing conditions and collaborative efforts
drive that decision with time.
The chance for daily storms goes silent over this heating
period, but is not zero. It'll be hard to get updrafts to
sustain underneath the general synoptic sink it has to
overcome, with forecast soundings pushing the convective temp up
into the mid 90s as well. Any storm that does occur will offer
only temporary, albeit steamy relief.
Most guidance continues to weaken the ridge Tuesday as an upper
trough and surface reflected cold front makes passage passage
by mid week. This brings temperatures and humidity back closer
to seasonal normals as the week closes out, along with a daily
chance of storms. Rain will be welcome by then, as the new 8-14
day potential hazards outlook indicates rapid onset drought
conditions developing during this heat wave.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Flight weather will see diurnal FEW-SCT cu bases developing
around 3-4K FT AGL early, rising to 5-7K FT AGL at peak heating.
It is possible eastern terminals (KEVV/KOWB) see temporary CIGS
at times. Bases clear/scatter at night, with patchy fog
possible again in the pre dawn hours, potentially offering site
restrictions to vsbys.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 12:20 PM CDT---------------
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