JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 4:18 AM EDT626
FXUS63 KJKL 140818
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
418 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
today, with lower chances for just isolated storms from Friday
through Monday.
-Hot and humid conditions will build through the weekend. Feels
like temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90s for many on
Saturday and Sunday.
-The heat is expected to peak on Monday, when feels like
temperatures could approach 100F in some locations.
-Looking ahead, chances for showers and storms will increase by
Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing some relief from the heat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
Weak high pressure at the surface continues to influence the
weather across eastern Kentucky this morning, while a weak
upper trough is likely to have some impact across the region by
this afternoon. The environment continues to exhibit relatively
deep moisture with modest instability, so there should be just
enough dynamics to squeeze out isolated to widely scattered
convection mainly during the afternoon hours today. Fortunately,
QPF values over the next 36 hrs. remain under 0.1" across the
majority of the JKL CWA, so excessive rainfall is not anticipated.
Upper-level troughing will stick around on Friday, and isolated
convection is once again possible mainly along the higher
elevations of far eastern KY. Afternoon temperatures will top out
in the mid to upper 80s most areas today, with a few spots maybe
reaching 90 degrees tomorrow afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
The 14/00z model suite analysis beginning Friday night shows
eastern Kentucky cradled in a 500 hPa shortwave trough between a
strengthening ~595 dam crescent-shaped high stretched from
Missouri, southward to the Mississippi River Delta, and then
eastward to south of Bermuda. Weak high pressure exists at the
surface while a decaying cold front will lie draped south of our
region. Upstream, there are multiple disturbances riding over the
high.
The aforementioned upper-level high will pivot westward through
the upcoming weekend while also continuing to expand, keeping a
relatively dry northwesterly flow over the Commonwealth. The first
disturbance, a shortwave trough, passes through the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes on Saturday and into the Northeast on Sunday.
This system drops a cold front into the Mid-Ohio Valley but that
will likely stall well to our north. However, there is a small
chance for isolated deep convection initiating over the higher
terrain closer to the Virginia-Kentucky border. A very isolated
shower or storm cannot be entirely ruled out on Sunday as well,
but a vast majority of the area stays dry with the strong upper-
level high just to our west. By Monday, the upper-level high will
begin retrograding westward much more rapidly, setting up the
favored path for the next ridge-riding disturbance (and cold
front) directly across the Upper Ohio Valley and Central
Appalachians. In spite of the northwesterly flow, LREF mean PWATs
still increase to 1.6 to 1.8+ inches over the extensive
agricultural areas of the Upper Midwest this weekend; those higher
PWATs will advect southeast across the Ohio Valley ahead of the
systems incoming cold front. That return of deep moisture
coinciding with height falls and increased forcing with the
approaching boundary will cause rain chances to increase from
Monday onward, though areal convective coverage will still be
strongly correlated with the diurnal heating cycle. Temperatures
aloft at 850 hPa will also be on a warming trend through early
next week, likely peaking around 20 to 21C next Monday and Tuesday
(supportive of highs around or exceeding 90F given deep mixing).
In sensible terms, look for a hot and mostly dry stretch of
weather through Monday. Temperatures are forecast to reach the
upper 80s to around 90 on Saturday with many locations breaking
into the lower 90s on Sunday and Monday. Moderate humidity levels
will make those temperatures feel more like the mid to upper 90s
with a number of locations potentially flirting with 100F on
Monday. Isolated showers or storms are not outside of the realm of
possibility on any afternoon/early evening but will be the
exception, not the rule. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin
ramping up on Tuesday and especially Wednesday, with probabilities
peaking each afternoon/early evening. Temperatures are also
forecast to trend downward, back into the 80s for highs at most
locations by Wednesday. Nighttime low temperatures are forecast to
generally range from 65 to 70F through the period. Fog is likely
to develop each night in the favored river valleys then burn off
after sunrise each morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
Overnight, expect widespread radiation fog and low stratus. VSBYs
and cigs are likely to drop into the IFR/LIFR category for
significant stretches during the next several hours owing to a wet
ground and light/calm winds. Conditions should improve somewhat
rapidly after sunrise, but there are low chances for TSRA during
the afternoon owing to a weak shortwave passage during the day.
For now, we'll handle this with PROB30 groups owing to the low
probability.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...ROSE
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 4:18 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
