LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:28 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...351
FXUS64 KLIX 071728
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025
The remaining few evening storms are finally winding down, and
another seasonable summer night is in store for us. Have noted the
potential for some light fog over areas that are rain-soaked from
this evening's storms from Baton Rouge up through McComb, MS.
However, no impacts are anticipated from this at this time.
Lingering SE CONUS troughing in the mid-upper levels sandwiched
between ridges over NM/TX, Quebec, and Bermuda have provided us with
about as consistently near average weather for August as you could
get this week. Highs remain stuck in the low 90s with low temps
hovering near the dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s each
night, and there's no real indication that this will change to round
out the end of the week. Heat indices will touch the 100s along the
I-10/12 corridor through Friday, but it won't last long before
increasing cloud cover from develop afternoon storms extinguishes
the heat risk. PoPs will be highest along the coast, confined to the
sea and lake breezes initially in the late morning to early
afternoon before spreading inland through the afternoon and evening
hours each day. Strong low-level lapse rates will still provide
enough for strong updrafts to grow from 0-3km before reaching much
weaker lapse rates in the mid-levels of less than 6 C/km. This
should stifle the ability for storms to intensify to severe
thresholds, but an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
The primary threat with these storms will continue to be frequent
lightning, locally heavy downpours causing localized street
flooding, and gusty winds in excess of 40 to 50 mph which can cause
isolated tree damage.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025
By Saturday, we'll see the upper trough over the SE CONUS pinch off
and retrograde southwestward into the northern Gulf as a Rex
Blocking Pattern sets up as ridging builds over the Great Lakes and
troughing gets stuck underneath. Falling heights in combination with
a weak inverted surface trough moving in from the east will
gradually increase afternoon convective coverage, especially on
Sunday and Monday, as the upper trough backs to the west and the
inverted surface trough moves across the area. Confidence is
currently highest in higher PoPs for Sunday, but these more nuanced
features are more difficult to get the timing right. PoPs could
remain elevated above climatological norms through Tuesday based on
latest guidance. By the middle of next week, the nose of the Bermuda
ridging may encroach from the east damping down PoPs and allowing
temps to nudge upward to above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
All terminals at VFR. Very little convection in the area this
afternon and, at issuance time, no impact to terminals. VFR should
persist through the period, but at the end of the period there is
just enough uncertainty regarding presence and placement of
convection that PROB30 statements are included.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025
Main concern for marine operations will once again be the threat
of thunderstorms, with the higher probabilities being in the
offshore waters during the overnight hours. If there's going to be
a day/night with the least activity it will probably be Friday.
Outside of convective impacts, wind/wave conditions will remain
benign across the coastal waters. A few strong storms will be
possible each day/night, and would result in gusty winds,
waterspouts, and locally higher waves/seas. The threat for
waterspouts will be highest during the morning hours, especially
when they can anchor near boundary intersections such as frontal
boundaries, lake and sea breeze boundaries.
Convective coverage will be on the increase through the weekend
due to an inverted surface trough coming in from the east which
will cause numerous to widespread showers and storms, especially
on Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 91 72 91 / 20 30 0 40
BTR 74 92 74 92 / 10 40 10 50
ASD 71 91 72 89 / 20 50 20 60
MSY 78 92 79 91 / 30 60 20 70
GPT 74 90 74 89 / 20 50 30 60
PQL 72 90 72 89 / 20 50 30 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:28 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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