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816 FXUS64 KLIX 182105AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA405 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024Current radar shows scattered showers across the CWA with a wide swath of light to moderate rain west of the local area. These showers are moving relatively quickly at around 20kts towards the west due to strong onshore flow north of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. This system is located northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula and slowly drifting northwestward. While this storm system is not forecast to directly affect the central Gulf Coast, continued easterly moisture advection will mean scattered afternoon showers will remain a risk through the evening hours. The CWA should see rain ending earlier in coastal Mississippi than it will closer to Baton Rouge due to drier air aloft moving in from the east. High PWATs (near 95th percentile for this date) mean that any passing showers will produce efficient rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr, though rainfall totals from these will be around an inch or 2 due to the forward motion. Once we lose diurnal heating this evening, should see a quick dropoff in activity. Another lower end impact from PTC One will be elevated winds. These winds may be in excess of 20 mph in coastal areas because of the strong nearly zonal pressure gradient, so coastal flooding will continue to be a minor concern. The current coastal flood advisory was expanded to include areas around the tidal lakes based on current obs which show a 1 to 2 foot increase in lake levels today. Have held off on a wind advisory for now but will possibly need one for the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain at some point. Low temperatures will remain above the climatological normal for mid June due to the high moisture and remaining cloud cover. A strengthening upper ridge, possibly reaching 600dm (that's really really high), centered over the Mid Atlantic will nose westward through the southeastern CONUS into tomorrow. This will cause PTC One to track west into northern Mexico, therefore removing some moisture content in our CWA. This will reduce POPs going into tomorrow, but because of how broad the system is and with PWATs at an impressive, though reduced, 2" on average regionwide, scattered showers with efficient rainfall rates will remain in the forecast, though these should also be quick moving. High temperatures will begin to increase closer to normal tomorrow with decreased rainfall and cloud coverage along with the ridge starting to nudge into our CWA.MEFFER/DOLCE&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday night)Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024Warmer and generally drier conditions expected as we end this week and head into the weekend as the ridge continues to build west.Subsidence from the ridge will continue decreasing POPs through the weekend. Highs will reach the mid 90s by Friday, potentially upper 90s for inland areas this weekend. Heat indices will breach 100 degrees by Friday and 105 degrees by Sunday areawide. Heat advisories may be needed if these trend a little higher. Afternoon sea breeze showers will remain a possibility through this period, primarily in coastal areas, which could bring temporary relief in spots. There is a chance another tropical disturbance tries to develop in the Bay of Campeche next week, though details are murky and no disturbance has formed yet. We'll keep an eye on it, though nothing to worry about for now.MEFFER/DOLCE&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024Terminal conditions vary across the spectrum with most at VFR, but RA and TS driving some lowered ceilings to MVFR or spotty/occasional IFR. Rain should be clearing by late evening into overnight hours leaving predominantly VFR, but could see isolated MVFR or IFR toward sunrise. Coastal terminals could see wind gusts to 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon hours today, before relaxing a bit around sunset. A more general increase in wind speeds is expected on Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat. &&.MARINE...Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024Elevated winds persist across the marine areas in response to PTCOne centered in the Bay of Campeche. Recent obs in the open Gulfwaters support a Gale warning, so one was issued. Hazardous conditions are expected over much of the open waters for the next several days, however, and Advisories may need to be extended beyond the current expiration over some or most of the waters. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 71 89 71 91 / 10 30 0 10 BTR 76 92 76 94 / 20 40 0 30 ASD 76 90 75 91 / 10 60 20 50 MSY 81 89 80 89 / 20 60 20 60 GPT 76 89 76 91 / 20 50 30 40 PQL 75 92 74 93 / 10 40 20 30 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ068. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ058-060- 066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-572-575.MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086>088.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-575.&&$$SHORT TERM...MEFFER/DOLCELONG TERM....MEFFER/DOLCEAVIATION...DSMARINE...RW/MEFFER
