CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 1:57 PM EDT ...18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...592
FXUS61 KCLE 051757
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
157 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
...18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure persists across the Great Lakes and Northeast through
the rest of the week before pushing east this weekend. Low pressure
moving east across Canada will drag a cold front towards the eastern
Great Lakes this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to influence the weather across the
region through the near term. A weak surface trough and accompanying
shortwave aloft may provide enough support for isolated showers and
thunderstorms across Central Ohio this afternoon. Overall impacts
look to be minimal and any activity that develops this afternoon
should diminish by sunset. Quiet and dry conditions are expected on
Wednesday as the high merges with another high over Canada.
Outside of slight chance PoPs this afternoon the region will
continue to see impacts of near-surface smoke, poor air quality, and
hazy skies due to Canadian wildfires. Highest near-surface
concentrations will remain confined to the lakeshore through
daybreak this morning as smoke is trapped closer to the surface.
Continued to put a mix of haze/smoke in the forecast based off of
the HRRR near-surface smoke concentrations through tonight.
Rinse and repeat high temperatures in the low to mid 80s are
expected today and Wednesday with overnight lows tonight settling in
the low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet conditions persist through the short term as Tropical Storm
Dexter acts to block any eastward progression of the high pressure
system. Warm and muggy conditions return by the end of the week with
highs in the mid 80s on Thursday climbing into the upper 80s by
Friday. Low temperatures are expected to settle in the mid 60s
through the forecast period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The high will exit this weekend as low pressure moves east across
Canada. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during the
long term as an upper level trough digs east into the Great Lakes
region. Warm and muggy conditions with highs in the upper 80s will
linger through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Overall quiet weather with VFR conditions are expected to
continue for this TAF update through the next 24 hours. There
will be some scattered to occasionally broken high level clouds
drifting through our skies. There will also be a few to
scattered afternoon fair weather CU around 5000 feet this
afternoon. A very weak mid level disturbance located near
Cincinnati this afternoon may help develop an isolated shower
or storm this afternoon over northern Ohio. The coverage of the
isolated convection will be very limited and not expecting
impacts to any of the TAF sites today. Some residual haze and
upper level wildfire smoke will continue to pass through our
skies today but reduction to visibility should be mostly at 6sm
or greater. There also could be some patchy light ground fog in
the usual spots late tonight through sunrise tomorrow morning.
Winds will be light around 5 knots or less from the east or
southeast direction. A lake breeze may come off the lake up to
10 knots this afternoon at CLE and ERI through 00z before it
switches back from the southeast late this evening.
Outlook...VFR largely expected through Sunday. There is
potential for some non-VFR visibility every morning in typical
locations for valley fog.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over Quebec will continue to influence the weather
over the eastern Great Lakes this week. This surface high will
shift southeast into New England by Thursday and then off the
Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. Therefore, winds on the lake
will be light at generally 10 kts or less through Friday. Wind
direction on the lake will be dominated by lake and land
breezes with east to northeast during the afternoon and evening
and south to southeast overnight. The surface high may become
too far east and weak enough to allow a system into the Great
Lakes region later into the weekend. This could allow for some
slightly increased winds and some modest shower/storm chances.
Overall, waves through the period should be 2 feet or less and
marine headlines are not anticipated at this time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 1:57 PM EDT ...18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...---------------
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