CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 7:49 AM EDT925
FXUS61 KCLE 051149
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
749 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure persists across the Great Lakes and Northeast through
the rest of the week before pushing east this weekend. Low pressure
moving east across Canada will drag a cold front towards the eastern
Great Lakes this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to influence the weather across the
region through the near term. A weak surface trough and accompanying
shortwave aloft may provide enough support for isolated showers and
thunderstorms across Central Ohio this afternoon. Overall impacts
look to be minimal and any activity that develops this afternoon
should diminish by sunset. Quiet and dry conditions are expected on
Wednesday as the high merges with another high over Canada.
Outside of slight chance PoPs this afternoon the region will
continue to see impacts of near-surface smoke, poor air quality, and
hazy skies due to Canadian wildfires. Highest near-surface
concentrations will remain confined to the lakeshore through
daybreak this morning as smoke is trapped closer to the surface.
Continued to put a mix of haze/smoke in the forecast based off of
the HRRR near-surface smoke concentrations through tonight.
Rinse and repeat high temperatures in the low to mid 80s are
expected today and Wednesday with overnight lows tonight settling in
the low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet conditions persist through the short term as Tropical Storm
Dexter acts to block any eastward progression of the high pressure
system. Warm and muggy conditions return by the end of the week with
highs in the mid 80s on Thursday climbing into the upper 80s by
Friday. Low temperatures are expected to settle in the mid 60s
through the forecast period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The high will exit this weekend as low pressure moves east across
Canada. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during the
long term as an upper level trough digs east into the Great Lakes
region. Warm and muggy conditions with highs in the upper 80s will
linger through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The main aviation weather concern will be MVFR haze/smoke/mist
at several of the terminals. The combination of smoke from
Canadian wildfires mixing down in the atmosphere and low
temperature-dew point spreads has allowed for a mix of 3 to 5
mile visibility this morning. Conditions should improve with
mixing later this morning. However, KERI has had MVFR for about
36 hours with the smoke mixing down to the surface and it will
likely continue for at least 6 hours with minimal flow over the
area. There is potential for conditions to improve with flow
shifting to the northeast later this afternoon, but there is
potential for the haze to continue for longer.
Otherwise, high pressure northeast of the terminals will
continue to promote dry conditions through the TAF period and
largely VFR conditions. High clouds will be in and out of the
region today with some mid- level clouds entering from the south
later this morning into the afternoon. There may be some lower
diurnally driven cumulus that will form this afternoon. There is
a very low chance for some showers and storms to develop over
North Central Ohio, but have omitted from the TAFs due to low
confidence in occurrence and coverage. Winds will continue to be
light at 10 kts or less. Winds will favor an east to southeast
direction. A lake breeze could impact KERI and KCLE and allow
for northeast flow this afternoon.
Outlook...VFR largely expected through Saturday. There is
potential for some non-VFR visibility every morning in typical
locations for valley fog.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over Quebec will continue to influence the weather
over the eastern Great Lakes this week. This surface high will
shift southeast into New England by Thursday and then off the
Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. Therefore, winds on the lake
will be light at generally 10 kts or less through Friday. Wind
direction on the lake will be dominated by lake and land
breezes with east to northeast during the afternoon and evening
and south to southeast overnight. The surface high may become
too far east and weak enough to allow a system into the Great
Lakes region later into the weekend. This could allow for some
slightly increased winds and some modest shower/storm chances.
Overall, waves through the period should be 2 feet or less and
marine headlines are not anticipated at this time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 7:49 AM EDT---------------
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