CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 8:16 PM EDT342
FXUS61 KCLE 050016
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
816 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes region through this
weekend before finally shifting east early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Minor adjustment to the forecast to reduce cloud cover from
mostly cloudy to partly cloudy for most areas tonight as the
thicker cirrus lifts to the north. Otherwise the forecast
remains on track.
Previous discussion...High pressure is expected to remain over
the area through Tuesday night, allowing for quiet and mostly
dry conditions to persist. There is a slight chance that a few
showers and thunderstorms could sneak into the central portion
of the area on Tuesday afternoon as a shortwave push of energy
moves east. Not expecting any notable impacts with any storms
that do develop as the overall forcing and atmospheric
conditions are not conducive to organized convection. All shower
activity that does develop will dissipate near sunset, leading
to widespread dry conditions Tuesday night.
In addition to the overall weather, there continues to be a stream
of smoke from Canadian Wildfires impacting the area. Hazy conditions
are being reported across the area, especially closest to the
lakeshore. As the atmosphere stabilizes tonight, expecting some of
this smoke to become trapped closer to the surface so opted to add
areas of smoke to the forecast from 7-12Z Tuesday. As temperatures
warm, the smoke should mix out some but still expecting some hazy
conditions to persist.
Temperatures across the area this afternoon remain in the upper 70s
to low 80s. Highs tomorrow will climb into the low to mid 80s with
overnight temperatures both days dropping into the upper 50s to low
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned high pressure will merge with another high over
Canada and remain in place through Thursday night as Tropical Storm
Dexter acts to block the progression of this high east. As a result,
quiet and dry conditions are expected to persist through the entire
short term period. In addition, temperatures will maintain a warmer
trend with highs on Wednesday and Thursday climbing into the low to
mid 80s. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will be in the low 60s
before more mild temperatures in the mid to upper 60s arrive for
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure looks to finally push east this weekend an approaching
low pressure finally pushes it off the East Coast. Model guidance is
not in agreement with the timing, but it appears the next potential
for precipitation would be late Sunday into Monday when the low
pressure and associated boundaries push east across the area in
association with an upper level trough. Highs through the long term
period will be in the mid to upper 80s with increasing dewpoints
resulting in the return on muggy conditions. Overnight lows will
provide little relief with temperatures only dropping into the mid
to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A combination of smoke and haze has resulted in reduced
visibilites at ERI and TOL at times today. Will maintain the
reduced visibilities at ERI into tonight with the possibility
for the land breeze to help improve conditions towards 12Z.
Confidence is lower at TOL and CLE if the haze will continue to
impact terminals. Otherwise, scattered to broken high clouds
will continue through the period. In addition scattered clouds
near 4-5K feet and a thickening mid-cloud deck from the south
will arrive on Tuesday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Tuesday afternoon towards MFD/CAK but confidence is
too low to include in the forecast at this time.
Winds will tend to remain light out of the east with land/lake
breeze circulations again at CLE/ERI.
Outlook...VFR largely expected through Friday. There are low
chances for showers and storms every afternoon from Tuesday
through Friday that could pose a non-VFR threat.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control over the lake through the
period, keeping marine conditions rather tranquil. A cyclical
pattern of increased northeast winds during the day and lighter
offshore/southerly winds overnight will persist through the
week. Diurnal winds peak in the 10-12 kt range each day, with
perhaps some winds near 15 kts this afternoon in the south
central basin. Waves generally 2 ft. or less through the period
with no headlines expected.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...03
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 8:16 PM EDT---------------
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