LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 12:28 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...855
FXUS64 KLIX 031728 AAB
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Weak upper trough across the area this evening, with a trailing
shortwave from Missouri to the Arklatex, and another over Colorado.
A weak frontal boundary looked to be pretty close to the Mississippi
and Louisiana coastlines. Upper air soundings around the region
pretty consistently had precipitable water values near 2.2 inches.
Precipitation across the area got off to a pretty late start, around
4 or 5 pm CDT, and has already mostly dissipated other than a few
isolated showers.
The lead shortwave will be crossing the CWA during the daytime
hours, with forecast soundings showing a good amount of drying
across the northwest half of the area, where precipitable water
values are forecast to be closer to 1.7 inches during the afternoon.
That is likely to keep convective development across the McComb and
Baton Rouge areas rather isolated during the afternoon, if any
occurs at all. Across the remainder of the area, instantaneous areal
coverage is likely to remain on the scattered side, with PoP12
values not much higher than 50-60, and that may be overstating
things. Highs will be similar to Saturday in the lower 90s.
With the trough axis forecast to be east of much of the area on
Monday, the question becomes whether the Colorado shortwave arrives
in time to provide a repeat of the areal precipitation pattern. NBM
PoPs look to be a bit on the high side for most of the area, and
haven't had a great track record the past few days. However, not out
of line with surrounding offices, and not going to gain much if a 5-
10 percent adjustment was made. Temperatures again in the lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Upper ridging to our west looks to become anchored over New Mexico
for most of the week, with troughing across the southeastern states.
Latest run of guidance holds precipitable water values of 2 to 2.2
inches over the Mississippi coastal counties Tuesday, so there's at
least some concern for heavy rainfall there, but feel the larger
threat is east of our CWA. Beyond Tuesday, forecast precipitable
water values between 1.7 and 1.9 inches lower the heavy rain threat,
but don't see enough dry air for most of the area to back off of at
least scattered chances of thunderstorms each day. No indications of
significant cool off across the local area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Outside of convection (and perhaps some limited VIS for MCB Monday
morning) VFR conditions are expected for the local terminals. As
for convection, best potential will be for NEW, MSY, HUM,
GPT...generally terminals further east and south. Winds through
the period should continue to remain light and variable through
the cycle outside of thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Outside of convective impacts, conditions will remain benign across
the coastal waters. Areal coverage of thunderstorms will probably
remain on the scattered side with diurnal maxima from late night
through about midday over the open waters, and during the afternoon
and early evening over the lakes and sounds. A few strong storms
will be possible each day/night, and could result in gusty winds,
waterspouts, and locally higher waves/seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 91 71 91 / 0 20 20 50
BTR 73 93 74 93 / 10 20 20 50
ASD 72 92 72 91 / 20 50 40 80
MSY 78 92 78 92 / 20 40 40 80
GPT 75 91 74 91 / 40 60 60 80
PQL 73 90 72 89 / 40 70 70 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 12:28 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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