ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 7:39 PM EDT744
FXUS61 KILN 302339
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
739 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front
moves through the area. High pressure of Canadian origin will bring
drier and cooler conditions for the end of the week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave over the Upper Midwest will begin to trek across the Great
Lakes states tonight. This will tend to flatten the persistent mid-
level ridge across the southern United States. Convectively induced cold
pool triggered by the wave will shift east across our northern areas
(north of I-70) late this evening into the overnight hours. Guidance
continues to suggest the leading showers and storms ahead of the
cold pool will weaken as they outrun the best instability and
forcing. Will maintain chance of PoPs across our west-central Ohio
counties due to the uncertainty in how quickly the storms weaken.
Temperatures tonight will continue to be warm and muggy.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front associated with the digging shortwave will pass through
most of our CWA on Thursday, with a surface wave bringing an
increase in showers and storms behind the front. With the better wind
profiles staying to our north, expecting storms to remain below
severe thresholds... though can't rule out heavy rain and localized
flooding based on the pool of deeper moisture following the front.
Decrease in showers along with falling dewpoints will occur Thursday
night as surface high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. Lows will fall into the 60s area-wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday begins the first full day of a pattern change in the mid Ohio
Valley, with the frontal boundary sagging southward, beginning near
the Ohio River. Scattered to isolated showers in/near the frontal
boundary, diminishing and pulling southward through the day.
Unseasonably cool, with highs in the upper 70s north to lower 80s in
the vicinity of the frontal boundary near/south of the Ohio River,
and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
With cold air advection and surface high pressure building over the
region, Saturday's highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s with welcome
dewpoints in the 50s. Return flow begins on Sunday as the high
pushes east, with slightly higher temps/dewpoints. Some possibility
of a return to showers in the far south on Sunday, but confidence is
pretty low that that activity would reach north of the Tennessee
Valley. Most likely the increasing chances would of showers/embedded
thunderstorms would be Monday onward, with the approach of a mid
level trough and associated shortwave approaching from the central
plains. Temperatures slowly return to more seasonable values of low-
mid 80s for highs and mid 60s for lows by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated SHRA development likely to miss the terminals late this
evening, but KDAY would have the best chance at observing anything.
Activity should be limited overnight, but with the cold front in
close proximity, cannot rule out an isolated shower developing.
Fog potential also exists overnight, but the best potential will be
along the river valleys. This may result in more impacts at KLUK, so
introduced at TEMPO IFR vsby reduction there.
Main impacts from the front arrive Thursday morning, with CIGs
lowering to MVFR (<2000 ft AGL). IFR CIGs will be possible for all
terminals as well, but confidence is higher for KCMH/KLCK.
A weak complex of showers and storms expected to move through during
the late morning to mid afternoon hours, which will be the best
chance for TSRA. TSRA chances remain low given the weak instability.
Spotty light showers may linger the rest of the afternoon and early
evening hours, eventually ending as the front continues to sink
southward.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday
morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070>073-077>082-
088.
Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
065.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 7:39 PM EDT---------------
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