PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 1:52 PM EDT641
FXUS61 KPBZ 311752
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
152 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Organized storms expected this afternoon with a passing cold
front, damaging winds and heavy rain is the main threat. Cool
and dry weather returns for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Organized storms expected to develop early afternoon, ahead of a
cold front will exit by 5pm.
- Cold front forecast to exit the region by midnight.
- Cool-down overnight.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Currently, northern parts of the region are beginning to see rain
from the incoming cold front. The boundary stretches from northeast
to southwest and will continue its passage through the southwest PA,
southeast OH, and northern WV into the late evening.
The joint probability of organized storms, which includes effective
shear and instability, is limited to areas south and southeast of
Pittsburgh. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with the line
of storms ahead of the front. Weaker shear near the surface (less
than 10kts) will likely keep the tornado threat low. Southern PA and
northern WV are the areas most likely to see severe weather which is
forecast to exit the region between 4-5pm.
With storms progressing along the front, the threat for flooding
will be limited to areas that receive training of high rainfall
rates.
The rain should be out of the region by midnight with a chance for
some lingering isolated showers in southwestern PA/ northern WV
until early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, most of the area is
expected to dry out and cool-down overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Widespread to scattered storm chances will decrease after 7pm
- Comfortable conditions expected Friday
----------------------------------------------------------------
As the front tracks east, expected precipitation coverage to
decrease after 7pm through 11pm this evening. A few isolated
showers may lingering along the Laurel Highlands early Friday
morning.
Confidence in foggy conditions early Friday is low with
potential breezy conditions.
If showers redevelop during the day on Friday, it will likely be
along the ridges of West Virginia with some weak low-level
convergence. With increasing mid-level subsidence, expect
shower intensity to be weak.
Below average temperatures are expected Friday and Friday night
in the wake of a cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Pattern shift supports cooler conditions over the weekend into
early next week
- Severe storm potential remains low
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The majority of weather models agree that a trough will cover
the Ohio River Valley this weekend, making near to below-
average temperatures probable until early next week.
In addition to the lower temperature, machine learning predicts
a 5% or lower probability of severe weather occurring in our
area during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front continues to press southward across the region. Based
on surface observations the front looks to currently be draped
across our northern counties. Along the front stratiform rain with
MVFR VIS and pockets of IFR mist continue as CIGs lower below 1000
feet. PROB30s for storms have been removed from DUJ/BVI/FKL with
these ports deep in the stratiform rain and rather cool at the
surface.
Across the southern portions of our area thunderstorms are
propagating eastward along a pre-frontal trough. This activity will
push through MGW shortly and will not threaten any other ports after
about 19z. Between these storms and the advancing front clear skies
could allow for some reinvigoration or sparking of new convection
but this chance seems rather low. Due to this PROB30s were left for
storms in PIT,AGC,LBE and HLG. Not all of these PROB30s are the same
with chances slightly higher for HLG and LBE that will have more
time with clearing.
After the front moves through CIGs are expected to drop to low end
MVFR or IFR with mist possible. Most models however show the low
levels drying out rather quickly overnight and hint at a possible
return to VFR by sunrise Friday.
Outlook... High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for
more river valley steam fog) with dry weather Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Lupo
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak/AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 1:52 PM EDT---------------
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