Please read the newsposts on the homepage! Some are rules some are archives from past events.
177 FXUS64 KLIX 300442AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025Plenty to discuss as we type this discussion late Tuesday night, with many uncertainties in the forecast in the near-term thru early Wednesday and slightly beyond into the afternoon. Starting out with radar/obs trends, the cluster of storms that caused isolated severe wind gusts/damage during the afternoon on Tuesdayhas evolved by spreading out a cold pool surging an outflow boundary west and south into northern Gulf waters. Elsewhere, SPCMesoanalysis illustrates ample CINH across the area as we've cooled/decoupled but still maintain ample elevated instability. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure center remains analyzed just south of Lake Charles and Houston in the NW Gulf, with a generalized mean NE flow setup over the northern Gulf coast, on the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge center over NE TX. Upstream,we're seeing lingering weak clusters of storms and associated small cold pools over E MS and W AL. Now that we've set up where the players are on the field, recent HRRR guidance plays some tricky situations attempting to resolve where these current clusters progress. 1) Ongoing convection over our westernwaters/coastal zones and associated boundary slows, pressing up against W to SW surface flow increasing sfc confluence. Recent HRRR trends see this as identified strong low-level confluence/lift to support re-igniting coastal/marine convectionthrough the morning hours. The inherited 01Z NBM is pretty loud with this solution, with a steady uptick in PoP's for marine areasup to 40 to 60% through the daybreak to mid- morning hours, eventually surging a boundary north and spreading convection northto I-10/12 early in the day. Will advertise low confidence for howfar north this convection can build towards the interstate earlythis morning. Currently anticipating it to be less in the way ofconvection in central areas, but will monitor trends and shouldsee greater coverage over the coast. That's player 1. Player 2 isthe upstream small complex(s) over E MS and W AL, and how this evolves, or additional convection re-fires on boundaries enteringour NE areas early this morning. Given widespread strong CINH as previously mentioned, having a hard time believing any remnant forcing can overcoming the CINH in place especially given the nocturnal timing. However, that's not to say we can't see some isolated/scattered redevelopment, especially around coastal areas.Did keep in the NBM painting 20-30% coverage over "greatest" confidence east of I-59. How either/or both solutions play out willdetermine how the heat builds tomorrow. If convection is far greater in the morning hours, remnant anvil canopy (or earlier development of convection) may offset how hot we get. Not confident on this, at all, and not anywhere close enough confidentto touch the heat advisory, as it'll still be hot regardless of where storms form. Just be aware, future forecast updates may be required to catch on how trends play out. Generally speaking afteranalyzing the regional synopsis and radar/mesoanalysis trends, weshould see a mostly quiet night but as we all know, that can change. Wednesday will feature another hot day and at some point (likely late morning), convective turnover will occur and we'll see more coverage over land. We could be faced with a very similar convective storm mode/pattern and coverage going into the afternoon/evening hours, with storms (numerous in some areas) expected. Storms will be mainly forced by previous storm's outflowboundaries, and any boundary interactions/collisions will lead tolocalized stronger updrafts owing in isolated severe wind gusts, again similar to what we saw Tuesday. Something to keep an eye on.Otherwise, no major adjustments were needed to temperatures. Generally much of the same going into Thursday, but CAMs being abit farther out looks more "typical" with morning isolated marineconvection and then turnover to scattered/numerous land convectionduring the day. Generally seeing a similar tropospheric profilealoft to suggest ongoing isolated strong/severe storm or twodepending on boundary interactions/collisions. Currentlyanticipating another day of heat advisories, but will letsubsequent shifts access the need given updated guidance. KLG&&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday night)Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025Elevated rain chances, mainly from late morning through eveningpersists going into Friday and the upcoming weekend, this will bedue in part by an approaching weak mid-level impulse within aweakness separated by two H5 594dm ridge centers (one over the SWUS, and the other in the NE Gulf). This will allow for a weakfront to approach the northern Gulf but slow down with time,supporting a generalized larger-scale foci for ascent needed formore numerous shower/storm coverage. Will also need to look at therisk for isolated flash flooding, but will double check thiscloser as we get into the late week time frame. Good news is(some) of the heat backs off, hopefully finally getting belowadvisory criteria towards atleast the later part of the weekend.Still plenty of time to monitor trends with latest guidance, butfor now, have that umbrella handy and be weather-aware thisweekend. KLG&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025Recent radar/obs and trends illustrate re-development of TSRAmainly across far coastal SE LA. Did adjust and attempt to timegreatest storm coverage for the next 6hrs through 12Z for mostterminals, but will advertise low confidence on how far north andeast this activity can back build over land. Regardless, southerncoastal terminals could see impacts early this morning (09-15Z) with SCT TSRA at times, reducing flight categories due to low CIGsand VIS. We'll see another round of SCT TSRA again developingacross land areas in the late morning, continuing into the afternoon/early evening hours to around 00-02z. Same impacts in any one strong storm, gusty erratic downdraft winds will be the main risks (upwards of 40 to 50 knots in any stronger, localized downburst). Outside of any TSRA activity, expect VFR conditions.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025We'll continue to see an enhancement of mainly overnight throughmorning hour storm coverage each day through late this week andespecially going into the weekend. In any one stronger/severestorm, wind gusts greater than 34 knots, waterspouts, and locallyenhanced waves/seas can be expected. However, outside of any stormactivity, conditions will be mainly calm with light tooccasionally breezy onshore winds and light waves/seas expected. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 76 95 73 93 / 40 70 40 70 BTR 78 95 76 95 / 40 70 30 70 ASD 75 93 75 94 / 50 70 30 70 MSY 79 94 80 94 / 60 70 30 80 GPT 77 93 78 93 / 40 60 30 70 PQL 75 94 77 93 / 40 60 30 70 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.GM...None.MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
