MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 12:01 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...554
FXUS64 KMOB 220501
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025
Mid to upper ridging gradually undergoes anticyclonic wave
breaking over the region as an inverted upper trough shifts
westward across the northern gulf by mid to late week. Hot
afternoon temperatures remain expected for today and Wednesday
with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 90's, hottest today.
Overnight lows stay very warm in the middle to upper 70's for most
locations. The combination of lower to middle 70's dew points and
the afternoon heat will allow for heat indices to warm into the
100 to 110 range, warmest nearer the coast. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for all of the forecast area today, with another
one likely needed for Wednesday. A caveat to Wednesday could be
the anticipated increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage
during the afternoon which could limit how hot we can get across
the area and likewise how high our heat indices can make it. Best
chances for highest heat indices will be nearer the coast and west
of the I-65 corridor.
With the aforementioned inverted trough entering the picture along
with weak surface troughing or low pressure skirting the coast,
rain and thunderstorm chances increase substantially as we head
into the Wednesday through Friday timeframe with scattered to
numerous coverage of showers and storms expected each day. As the
trough moves out of the area, we return back to a more typical
Summer time pattern for the weekend with scattered to locally
numerous afternoon showers and storms, greatest coverage nearer
the coast in association with the afternoon sea breeze boundary.
Additionally, with increasing onshore flow the rip current risk
will steadily rise late week. The rip current risk for area
beaches will remain Low through Wednesday. As we head into
Thursday the rip current risk increases to a Moderate and by
Friday a High risk. While the current forecast calls for the rip
current risk to drop to a Moderate by Saturday, if onshore flow
remains strong enough the high risk could linger into the weekend.
MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025
VFR conditions prevail through much of the period. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
afternoon hours on Tuesday before dissipating during the evening.
/13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025
Light to occasionally moderate westerly winds continue through
Wednesday. Winds shift Wednesday night to a light to moderate
easterly to southeasterly flow. Flow becomes light to moderate
southerly Thursday night into Friday, gradually relaxing and
becoming westerly late this weekend. No impacts are expected
outside of higher winds and seas in or around any thunderstorms.
MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 97 76 96 75 90 74 88 / 10 30 20 80 50 90 50 90
Pensacola 79 97 80 95 78 89 78 89 / 10 40 30 80 60 90 50 80
Destin 82 96 81 93 79 89 79 90 / 10 40 40 80 70 90 50 80
Evergreen 75 97 75 95 74 90 73 90 / 10 40 20 70 40 90 30 80
Waynesboro 75 97 74 96 73 92 73 89 / 0 20 10 60 30 70 20 80
Camden 75 96 75 95 74 91 73 89 / 10 30 10 60 30 70 20 80
Crestview 75 97 75 94 74 89 73 89 / 10 50 30 90 50 100 40 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 12:01 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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