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160 FXUS64 KLIX 211643AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1143 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025Tonight through Wednesday morning, conditions will be fairly dryoverall thanks to high pressure building over the area. Anisolated shower or two cannot be ruled out, especially nearLouisiana coastal areas, but it is not likely. Southerly surfacewinds will help to advect warm and moist air into the environment,increasing humidities. As a result, heat will be a concern duringthe daytime hours Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the upper90s with heat index values averaging around 108-112 degrees. Aheat advisory has been issued for our entire area excluding theadjacent Louisiana coastline as a result. Make sure to stayhydrated and wear loose-fitting clothing. Take frequent breaks ifyou will be spending time outdoors. MSW&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025Wednesday, rain chances will start to increase over the area and especially into Thursday and Friday. When the rain chancesincrease will play a big role in the heat risk and heat concerns.There is still a lot of model uncertainty in the forecast forWednesday with the Euro/NBM showing storm chances increasing afternoon on Wednesday and the GFS among others showing it drier untilthe evening hours on Wednesday. Given the strength of the highpressure and current trends, we are more inclined at this point tolean toward the drier solution. If this occurs, there would beless cloud/rain coverage and heat index values could beapproaching excessive heat warning criteria (~113 degrees). Andadded heat risk concern for the drier solution is that the lows onWednesday morning may not drop below 80 degrees in some locations,including New Orleans. This would compound the heating effects. If the rain starts up earlier, by midday, then the heat risk concerns would be greatly reduced. We will have to see how things develop over the next 1-2 days. An easterly wave is expected to move through the area Wednesdaynight through the weekend, enhancing rain chances. There is stilla good bit of uncertainty in how long the rain chances will last(i.e. through Friday or through the weekend, etc.). But at theleast, some localized flash flooding could be possible later inthe workweek, given the higher PWs and Gulf moisture. We arecurrently outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Heavy Rainfall toreflect this concern for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. We willkeep monitoring over the next few days to see how things play outin the models as this wave approaches the area. MSW&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025VFR conditions prevail and will persist throughout the forecastperiod at all area airports. MSW&&.MARINE...Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025High pressure will be in control to start the new workweek across the local waters. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorms, mostly in the late night or morning hours. However, through around Tuesday coverage will be a bit on the spotty side.Going into Wednesday and the 2nd half of the week more tropical moisture moves into the region with a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around convection. A weak easterly wave is forecast to move west mid to late week, which may also bring slightly elevated winds and seas, but at this juncture it appears the moderate southerly winds will be below cautionary headline thresholds, though any slight upward adjustment to surface winds would require such headlines. MSW&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 74 97 75 96 / 0 10 10 50 BTR 76 95 77 96 / 10 10 0 40 ASD 75 96 76 95 / 0 10 10 60 MSY 79 96 80 96 / 0 20 10 70 GPT 77 97 78 96 / 0 20 20 70 PQL 76 97 76 96 / 0 30 20 70 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.GM...None.MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...MSWLONG TERM....MSWAVIATION...MSWMARINE...MSW
