MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 1:23 AM CDT ...New Aviation...750
FXUS64 KMOB 190623
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
123 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
Upper ridging settles in across the region this weekend with light
flow aloft. Gradually, the ridge shifts to the north/northwest
allowing for increasing northeasterly to easterly flow aloft to
become established by mid to late week. This in turn allows for a
subtle shortwave to transit across the gulf coast states from
east to west by mid to late week and for a weak surface low to
form off the southeast U.S. coastline by late week.
Given the aforementioned ridging building in, rain chances dwindle
quite a bit today into Sunday. Only isolated to scattered
coverage of showers and storms are expected today, becoming
generously isolated on Sunday. As ridging shifts north/northwest
a bit and the aforementioned trough/low enter the picture, rain
chances start to increase quickly to scattered by the middle of
next week and perhaps even locally numerous by late next week.
Forecast temperatures warm up significantly as we head into the
Sunday through Wednesday timeframe, with afternoon highs warming
into the middle to upper 90's each day, isolated spots reaching
100 degrees. Northerly flow will be established across the area
into early next week which should allow for decent afternoon
mixing of dewpoints into the lower to middle 70's for most
locations. Despite this, they remain high enough where in
combination with expected high temperatures the heat indices will
be in the 105 to 110 range nearer the coast Sunday through
Tuesday. Interior portions of the forecast area should stay in the
100 to 105 range those days. The forecast heat indices and
associated heat risk values will likely require heat advisories
for at least coastal counties, particularly Monday and Tuesday.
The rip current risk should diminish today to a Moderate risk
before becoming a low risk tonight. The rip current risk increases
to a Moderate risk again Sunday night into Monday for Florida
Panhandle beaches. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
VFR conditions will persist overnight and into the day tomorrow.
Isolated to scattered storms will develop along the coast around
mid-morning and spread inland throughout the day. Temporary
reductions to MVFR/IFR will be possible around midday with the
strongest storms. Storms should subside by early evening with
light winds out of the southwest. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
No marine impacts are expected outside of shower and storms. A
light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow prevails through
Monday, then becomes westerly to northwesterly Monday night into
Tuesday night. A light to moderate southeasterly flow develops
Wednesday afternoon lingering through late week. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 91 76 94 77 96 77 97 76 / 40 10 20 0 20 10 30 20
Pensacola 91 79 93 80 96 80 97 79 / 30 0 10 0 20 20 30 30
Destin 92 80 93 80 95 80 97 80 / 30 0 10 0 30 20 40 40
Evergreen 93 74 96 75 96 76 97 75 / 30 10 10 10 20 10 30 30
Waynesboro 93 74 95 74 96 75 97 75 / 20 10 10 0 20 0 20 10
Camden 93 75 95 76 95 76 96 75 / 20 10 10 10 20 10 20 20
Crestview 93 75 95 77 97 77 97 76 / 40 0 20 0 40 10 50 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 1:23 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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